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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China December manufacturing index falls to 7-month low: HSBC
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Dec 16, 2014


Chinese November FDI jumps 22.2%: govt
Beijing (AFP) Dec 16, 2014 - Foreign investment into China accelerated in November, government data showed Tuesday, despite a worsening slowdown in the world's second-largest economy and concerns over business risks.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) -- which excludes financial sectors -- rose 22.2 percent year-on-year, the commerce ministry said, totalling $10.36 billion.

The figure compares with an increase of 1.3 percent in October to $8.53 billion. FDI had hit a four-year-low in August of $7.20 billion.

For the first 11 months of 2014, FDI amounted to $106.24 billion, the ministry said, an increase of 0.7 percent year-on-year.

"Investment from major countries and regions was generally stable," commerce ministry spokesman Shen Danyang said.

Chinese authorities have this year launched anti-monopoly, pricing and other inquiries into foreign firms in sectors ranging from auto manufacturing and pharmaceuticals to baby milk, fuelling fears Beijing is targeting them, a charge the commerce ministry repeatedly denies.

China's appeal as an investment destination has also been declining in recent years owing to rising labour and land costs and competition from other Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam.

Officials have also blamed source country factors, such as Washington's drive to move industrial production back to the United States.

China's economy expanded 7.3 percent in the July-September quarter, slower than the 7.5 percent expansion in the previous three months and the worst result since 2009 at the height of the global financial crisis.

In the first 11 months, FDI fell 39.7 percent from Japan to $4.08 billion, 22.2 percent from the US to $2.46 billion, 9.8 percent from the European Union (EU) to $6.17 billion, and 23.6 percent from the ASEAN group of Southeast Asian countries to $5.87 billion.

British investment, meanwhile, jumped 28 percent to $1.25 billion, while that from South Korea increased 22.9 percent to $3.59 billion.

- 'Volatile' figures -

Investment by Chinese companies overseas, meanwhile, fell in November for the second consecutive month, the ministry said.

Overseas direct investment (ODI) was down 26.1 percent year-on-year in November at $7.92 billion and stood at $89.8 billion for the first 11 months, up 11.9 percent.

ODI had fallen 12.2 percent in October to $6.92 billion after soaring 90.5 percent in September to $9.79 billion.

China has been actively acquiring foreign assets, particularly energy and resources, to power its economy, with firms encouraged to "go out" and make overseas acquisitions to gain market access and international experience.

Officials have said outward investment could exceed FDI this year, though with just one month to go that looks increasingly unlikely given the current position and trends.

"After analysis, we think FDI and ODI will be close this year," Shen said at a regular briefing, adding monthly figures are "volatile" and that China "does not seek to become a capital exporter".

Over the 11-month period, Chinese investment into the US rose 27.1 percent to $4.64 billion, the ministry said.

Without providing total amounts, the ministry also said that investment to the EU nearly tripled, that to Japan rose 80 percent, while to Hong Kong it increased 13.3 percent.

It added that investment to Australia fell 29.8 percent during the period, while to Russia it dropped 76.7 percent and to ASEAN 3.8 percent.

China's manufacturing activity worsened in December with HSBC's closely watched purchasing managers' index (PMI) hitting a seven-month low, the bank said Tuesday, signalling more weakness in the world's second-largest economy.

The British banking giant's preliminary PMI for the month came in at 49.5, below the break-even point dividing expansion and contraction, the bank said in a statement.

The result, compiled by information services provider Markit, was lower than November's final reading of 50.0 and the weakest result since May's 49.4. The December reading also marked the first move into the contraction range in seven months.

The index tracks activity in China's factories and workshops and is a closely watched indicator of the health of the Asian giant, a key driver of global growth.

"The manufacturing slowdown continues in December and points to a weak ending for 2014," Qu Hongbin, HSBC's chief economist for China, said in the statement.

"The rising disinflationary pressures, which fundamentally reflect weak demand, warrant further monetary easing in the coming months."

HSBC will publish its final reading for December on January 2, it said.

China's economy expanded 7.3 percent in the third quarter, the government said in October, lower than the 7.5 percent of the previous three months and the slowest since 2009 at the height of the global financial crisis.

It has showed continued weakness in the current fourth quarter.

The central People's Bank of China last month cut interest rates for the first time in more than two years to jolt slowing growth, but analysts say that further easing steps are needed.

China's official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) came in at 50.3 in November, the weakest since an identical reading in March. The NBS is likely to announce December PMI on January 1.

The government on Friday announced that industrial output expanded at its slowest pace in three months in November, while retail sales and fixed asset investment data also pointed to weakness.

- 'New normal' -

The data came after a key annual meeting last week where China's top leaders stressed the need to adapt to the economy's "new normal" -- an increasingly popular official expression for slower but more sustainable growth.

Nomura economists said that the release, the first covering data for December, does not bode well for other statistics due out for the month.

"The greater-than-expected decline in the flash PMI raises the possibility that December data will disappoint," they wrote in a reaction, having expected a reading of 50.1.

"We expect more policy easing to help stabilise growth and to achieve the annual growth target of around 7.5 percent for 2014."

Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, said that while analysts expect more interest rate cuts and liquidity injections, no one should count on such moves to drive a rebound next year.

"While policymakers want to prevent a sharp drop off in growth, structural rebalancing goals and concerns about credit risks mean that they are likely to allow the economy to gradually slow further over coming quarters, particularly given the recent resilience of the labour market," he wrote in a note.

Chinese authorities have committed themselves to rebalancing the economy as it further matures to one in which the country's increasingly prosperous consumers drive growth, even if at a slower rate.

Jobs are a key component of that strategy in the world's most populous nation. Premier Li Keqiang has said that authorities can accept a growth rate on the lower side of the targeted "about" 7.5 percent for this year so long as employment remains strong.


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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China November industrial output at three-month low
Beijing (AFP) Dec 12, 2014
China's industrial output expanded at its slowest pace in three months in November, official data showed Friday, with other key indicators also pointing to weakness in the world's second-largest economy. Industrial production, which measures output at factories, workshops and mines, rose 7.2 percent year-on-year last month, the weakest since August's 6.9 percent, data from the National Burea ... read more


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