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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China cuts 2016 growth target to '6.5-7 percent': Li
By Ben Dooley
Beijing (AFP) March 5, 2016


Facts about China's 2016-2020 growth plan
Beijing (AFP) March 5, 2016 - China on Saturday published the draft of its 13th Five-Year Plan, a blueprint for economic and social development over the 2016-2020 period.

Such plans are a legacy of China's command economy era but still guide policymakers, and the 148-page document is due to be approved by the ongoing National People's Congress, the country's Communist-controlled parliament.

Here are some main targets listed in the draft plan.

1. To grow China's economy, the world's second-largest, by an average of at least 6.5 percent a year over the period. Gross domestic product (GDP) to go from 67.7 trillion yuan ($10.4 trillion) last year to more than 92.7 trillion yuan in 2020.

2. The service sector to account for 56 percent of GDP by 2020, up from 50.5 percent in 2015.

3. To cap total energy consumption under five billion tonnes equivalent of coal by 2020, compared with 4.3 billion tonnes equivalent of coal last year.

4. To cut energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 15 percent and 18 percent respectively from 2015 levels by 2020.

5. City air quality to be rated "good" or better at least 80 percent of the time by 2020, up from 76.7 percent in 2015.

6. To raise installed nuclear power capacity to 58 gigawatts by 2020, when another 30 gigawatts are scheduled to be under construction. Currently, 28.3 gigawatts are installed, with 26.7 under construction.

7. To expand the high-speed railway network to 30,000 kilometres (around 18,600 miles) by 2020, from 19,000 kilometres last year, and build at least 50 new civilian airports.

8. To boost per capita disposable income by 6.5 percent or higher every year. The figure grew by 7.4 percent in 2015.

9. To create a total of 50 million jobs in urban areas over the five years.

10. Permanent urban residents to make up 60 percent of China's total population by 2020, up from 56.1 percent last year. The proportion of people with urban "hukou", or household registration, is to reach 45 percent of the total population.

China on Saturday cut its growth target for this year to a range of 6.5 to seven percent, as the world's second-largest economy faces a litany of challenges from overcapacity to weak trade.

The country is a key driver of global growth but expansion fell last year to 6.9 percent, its slowest in a quarter of a century, and worries over its health have sent tremors through stock markets around the world.

Premier Li Keqiang told the opening of the National People's Congress (NPC) parliament, the country's Communist-controlled legislature, that this year's growth target was "6.5 percent to 7 percent".

Li struck a deeply realistic tone, cataloguing the impact on the country's outlook of weak trade growth, fluctuations in commodity and financial markets, and rising geopolitical risks.

"China will face more and tougher problems and challenges in its development this year, so we must be fully prepared to fight a difficult battle," he said, adding that the government would increase deficit spending.

"Downward pressure on the economy is growing," Li said. "Domestically, problems and risks that have been building up over the years are becoming more evident."

Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder of investment advisers J Capital Research, said Li was sending a message that "'This is a painful year. We are going to grit our teeth and hope we can create an upturn in 2017'."

The annual, highly choreographed event at the Great Hall of the People featured mostly male attendees in dark suits or the colourful costumes worn by ethnic minorities at official ceremonies.

Li's nearly two-hour speech to serried ranks of delegates was punctuated by regular bursts of polite applause, and the sound of thousands of sheets of paper turning simultaneously each time he finished reading a page.

Audience member Zhao Jiajun, a doctor from Shandong province in the east, called the speech "fairly pragmatic", adding it "touched on many problems".

"Every area has places that are still imperfect, lots of things can't be accomplished in one shot," he told AFP. "It's like climbing a mountain. You go up step by step. It's impossible to walk to the top in a single step."

- 'Market expectations' -

Premier Li said that authorities would make much-needed cuts to overcapacity in the steel, coal, and "other industries facing difficulties".

State-owned enterprises, many of which are plagued by inefficiencies and overcapacities, will be prompted "to make structural adjustments", he said, with some reorganised, merged, or forced to exit the market.

Such pledges have been made many times before and Christopher Balding, professor of economics at Peking University's HSBC Business School, told AFP the cuts were insufficient to cancel out additional capacity recently added or still coming online.

"A lot of these problems they've been talking about for many years but nothing has come of it," he said.

China is attempting a difficult transition from dependence on exports and investments to consumer-led growth, seen as slower but more sustainable.

Nevertheless, Li said that this year, central government investment spending would rise to 500 billion yuan ($77 billion), while nationwide spending on railway construction would exceed 800 billion yuan and road-building would top 1.65 trillion yuan.

China's leaders have sought to reassure jittery global markets in recent weeks with a unified message that authorities still have monetary and fiscal policy tools in their arsenal to keep the economy from further slowdown.

Li projected a government deficit for 2016 of 2.18 trillion yuan, 3.0 percent of GDP, up from 2.3 percent last year, which would be the highest for several decades.

A three percent level has long been seen as a red line by authorities, but Li noted that such a ratio was lower than in other major economies.

China was also targeting consumer inflation of around 3 percent and unemployment within 4.5 percent, he added, and pledged reductions in releases of some major pollutants.

Li did not give a specific target for trade, which fell last year, only aiming for "a steady rise in import and export volumes" and "a basic balance in international payments".

The GDP growth target had been set at "about seven percent" last year.

China's leaders have traditionally declared it at an easily achieved level that was regularly exceeded, and even then usually approximated to provide room for positive spin. Using a range, rather than a single figure, will widen the goal further.

Li said the declared band will "help guide market expectations and keep them stable".

dly-bfc/slb/jah

BANK OF CHINA


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