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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China to 'tinker' with monetary easing: analysts
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Nov 17, 2011

Japan props up growth in leading economies: OECD
Paris (AFP) Nov 17, 2011 - Advanced economies across the world grew by 0.6 percent in the third quarter on a particularly strong showing of 1.5 percent in Japan, the OECD said on Thursday.

This is broadly in line with recent data from other leading economic bodies, pointing to weak overall growth except in some still robust emerging economies.

The overall data points to activity holding up in the third quarter, but probably a further weakening into 2012.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said that the Japanese figure, compared with output in the second quarter, reflected a surge in activity after the country got over the worst of the effects of the earthquake and tsunami earlier this year.

The rebound followed three quarters in a row of falling output in Japan, meaning the country was in recession.

Growth of the US economy picked up slightly in the third quarter to 0.6 percent, the OECD said, but growth in both the 17-nation eurozone and 27 members of the European Union remained at 0.2 percent.

This was despite a stronger performance of 0.5 percent by Germany, 0.5 percent by Britain and 0.4 percent by France.

On a 12-month comparison, rather than a quarterly one, growth in the OECD area was 1.8 percent showing the same increase as in the second quarter

The biggest expansion over 12 months was by Germany with 2.6 percent and the weakest by Japan at minus 0.2 percent.


China will "tinker around the edges" of monetary policy to keep its economy growing, but still-high inflation and overseas turmoil mean dramatic changes are unlikely, analysts said Thursday.

The central bank announced Wednesday it would "fine-tune" monetary policy, repeating remarks by Premier Wen Jiabao last month and fuelling hopes of a relaxation of tight credit as growth in the Asian powerhouse slows.

Beijing has hiked interest rates five times since October 2010 and increased the reserve requirement ratio -- the portion of deposits banks must set aside -- on numerous occasions to rein in surging inflation and housing prices.

But the debt crisis in Europe, a key buyer of Chinese exports, and weakness in China's manufacturing sector has prompted leaders to rethink economic policy, though ongoing concerns over high prices will limit their response.

"They are still trying to keep the overall stance the same but they will tinker around the edges if they think conditions justify that," Brian Jackson, a senior strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong, told AFP.

Experts said policymakers were likely to reduce the reserve requirement ratio, which is hovering at record levels, in the coming months to spur lending to smaller businesses, which are struggling to get financing.

But they ruled out a change in interest rates, which is seen as a more aggressive policy tool.

"I think their general view is that because inflation is still so high, if you lower interest rates it will send the wrong message to the economy," Ren Xianfang, an analyst at IHS Global Insight in Beijing, told AFP.

Investors barely reacted to the central bank statement, with Shanghai shares closing down 0.16 percent, or 3.91 points, to 2,463.05.

Inflation slowed sharply in October from the previous month to 5.5 percent year-on-year, compared with 6.1 percent in September, but is still well above the government's annual target of four percent.

The People's Bank of China said Wednesday it would "at an appropriate time and in moderate degree pre-emptively adjust and fine-tune" monetary policy, adding it would do so based on changes in the global economy.

But Yang Jianhai, a Shanghai-based analyst for Essence Securities, said there was "very limited" room for moves in monetary policy given the "uncertainties in the trend of future prices".

The central bank statement comes after the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday warned that China's financial system was at risk from bad loans, booming private lending and sharp falls in property prices.

China has already started to tentatively loosen credit restrictions. Last month, authorities ordered banks to boost lending to cash-strapped small businesses which are struggling to meet rising costs amid falling demand for their goods.

The order came amid concerns that an explosion in private financing could lead to widespread bankruptcies and bad debts.

A series of economic indicators released earlier this month showed China's export-driven economy slowed in October as demand for Chinese-made clothes, shoes and electronic gadgets weakened.

Exports rose 15.9 percent year-on-year to $157.49 billion in October, down from $169.7 billion in September, as shipments to Europe and the United States fell, the customs agency said in a statement.

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Key US House panel launches China telecom probe
Washington (AFP) Nov 17, 2011 - A key US House of Representatives committee announced Thursday it has launched an investigation into the national security threat posed by Chinese-owned telecommunications firms operating in US markets.

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers, a Republican, and the panel's top Democrat, Dutch Ruppersberger, cited the possibility that Beijing could use those assets for economic or military espionage, or sabotage.

"The fact that our critical infrastructure could be used against us is of serious concern," said Rogers, who cited companies Huawei and ZTE in a joint statement announcing the probe.

"Huawei happens to be the 800-pound gorilla in the room, but there are other companies that will be included," he added, warning US companies against "engaging Huawei technology until we can fully determine their motives."

Ruppersberger said "the Chinese are aggressively hacking into our nation's networks, threatening our critical infrastructure and stealing secrets worth millions of dollars in intellectual property from American companies.

"The purpose of this investigation is to determine to what extent Chinese communications companies are exploiting the global supply chain and how we can mitigate this threat to our national and economic security," he added.

The committee plans to gather information from telecommunications firms, private-sector security experts, and relevant US government officials, and hold a series of hearings into the issue.

Asked whether the panel might call executives from the Chinese companies to testify, Rogers spokeswoman Susan Phalen told AFP that "the chairman is leaving all options on the table."

The announcement came two weeks after a US intelligence agency, in an unusually blunt report on a sensitive topic, branded the Chinese the world's "most active and persistent perpetrators" of economic espionage.

The report, "Foreign Spies Stealing US Economic Secrets in Cyberspace," was compiled by the Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive, part of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.



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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China central bank signals end to tightening
Beijing (AFP) Nov 16, 2011
China said Wednesday it would "fine-tune" its monetary policy amid "global systemic risks", raising hopes of a relaxation of tight credit as growth in the world's second largest economy slows. The nation's central bank also warned the eurozone crisis could "lead to global systemic risks if it spreads more to core countries," just as the Asian powerhouse suffers from a fall in exports due to ... read more


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