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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China's economic growth slows to 24-year low: govt
By Fran WANG
Beijing (AFP) Jan 20, 2015


China outbound investment surges past $100 bn in 2014: govt
Beijing (AFP) Jan 16, 2015 - Chinese overseas investment surged past $100 billion for the first time last year, official figures showed Friday, but remained below investment into the country.

Overseas direct investment (ODI) rose 14.1 percent to $102.9 billion in 2014, vice commerce minister Zhong Shan said at a briefing, as Chinese firms continued to buy up assets, particularly energy and resources, to power the world's number two economy.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China rose to $119.6 billion, the second consecutive increase, although that is only 1.7 percent higher, representing a marked deceleration.

Although the outbound figure did not overtake the incoming total, as some officials had expected early last year, Zhong said the long-term trend was clear.

"On current trends, China's outward investment will continue to grow faster than its utilisation of foreign investment, which will make China a net investor in no time... making a historic turning point," he said.

In 2013 Chinese ODI rose 16.8 percent to $90.17 billion, while FDI rebounded 5.3 percent to $117.59 billion after declining the previous year in the face of economic weakness in developed markets and a growth slowdown at home.

Both ODI and FDI exclude financial sectors.

The ministry did not provide complete country and regional breakdowns for Chinese investment destinations in 2014, other than saying -- without giving totals -- that investment to the European Union nearly tripled while that to the United States increased 23.9 percent.

The slowdown in FDI growth came as Chinese authorities last year launched anti-monopoly, pricing and other inquiries into foreign firms -- in sectors from auto manufacturing and pharmaceuticals to baby milk -- fuelling fears Beijing was targeting them. The commerce ministry has repeatedly denied the charges.

Recent years have seen China's appeal as an investment destination decline owing to increasing land and labour costs and competition for investment from other Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam.

Officials have also blamed source country factors, such as Washington's drive to move industrial production back to the United States.

Investment from the 28-member EU fell 5.3 percent to $6.85 billion in 2014, the ministry said, while investment from the 10-member ASEAN group of Southeast Asian nations declined 23.8 percent to $6.51 billion.

Investment from the United States also declined 20.6 percent to $2.66 billion.

But South Korean investment into China jumped 29.8 percent to $3.97 billion, while that from Britain rose 28 percent to $1.35 billion.

Investment from Japan, meanwhile, slid 38.8 percent to $4.33 billion as geopolitical tensions between the region's top two economies continue.

The ministry did not immediately provide figures for FDI from Hong Kong and Taiwan, two of the largest inbound investors.

For December alone, inward investment increased 10.3 percent to $13.3 billion, according to the ministry.

China's gross domestic product grew 7.4 percent in 2014, official data showed Tuesday, slumping to a 24-year low with authorities describing the slower pace as the "new normal" for the world's second-largest economy.

The figure announced by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) was slower than the 7.7 percent seen in 2013, but exceeded the median forecast of 7.3 percent in an AFP survey of 15 economists.

Growth in the final quarter of the year also came in at 7.3 percent year-on-year, the NBS said, matching the previous three months and beating the 7.2 percent median forecast in the AFP survey.

"China's economy has achieved stable progress with improved quality under the new normal in 2014," NBS chief Ma Jiantang told reporters.

"However we should also be aware that the domestic and international situations are still complicated and economic development is facing difficulties and challenges."

The full-year result, the worst since 3.8 percent recorded in 1990, comes after one of the pillars of the global economy was hit by manufacturing and trade weakness as well as declining prices for real estate, which has hammered the key property sector.

Beijing had set an official target of "about" 7.5 percent for last year. The goal is traditionally pegged at a level that is easily achieved, and is usually approximated to provide room for positive spin just in case it is missed. The 2014 result is the first miss since 1998, during the Asian economic crisis.

The Shanghai benchmark index rallied 1.80 percent in late morning trade.

Economists were largely upbeat on the results, but said they did not alter the outlook for further slowing this year.

"The 2014 GDP result is better than market expectations and barely missed the target," ANZ economist Liu Li-Gang told AFP. "This result is not too bad."

Nomura economists expect GDP to trend lower following the "short respite" at the end of last year "given deep-rooted domestic challenges such as tighter controls over local government debt, the property market correction and deleveraging", they said in a note following the figures.

For this year, the economists in the AFP survey see a median 7.0 percent expansion.

In its latest World Economic Outlook update, released Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund projected even slower growth this year, of 6.8 percent.

- Unemployment at 5.1% -

The NBS also said industrial production, which measures output at factories, workshops and mines, accelerated to rise 7.9 percent year-on-year in December from 7.2 percent in November.

Retail sales, a key indicator of consumer spending, also grew at a slightly faster 11.9 percent in the same month.

Fixed asset investment, a measure of government spending on infrastructure, expanded 15.7 percent on-year for the whole of 2014, weakening from the 15.8 percent recorded for the first 11 months of the year.

Despite the slowdown last year, authorities say they intend to stick to the path of transforming the economy into one where growth is increasingly driven by consumer spending rather than big ticket investments, and emphasising quality of expansion over size.

Premier Li Keqiang has said slowing growth is no worry so long as job growth in the world's most populous country does not suffer.

Ma, the NBS chief, said China's "internal survey rate" for unemployment in 2014 was about 5.1 percent, but refused to provide a comparative figure for the previous year.

Authorities last year did not take an entirely hands off approach to the growth slowdown, implementing a series of targeted measures analysts described as "mini-stimulus". And in November the central People's Bank of China cut interest rates for the first time in more than two years to try to put a floor on the slowdown.

Li told China's State Council, or Cabinet, on Monday that authorities would strike a balance between stabilising growth and pushing structural reforms in 2015, state media reported.

"As the global economy is undergoing a deep restructuring and slow recovery, China's government will likely face heavy tasks in tackling the difficulties," he said, according to the official Xinhua news agency.

Economists are broadly expecting further monetary policy tinkering this year, including at least one more interest rate cut, but say the focus will be on reforms over the temptation of major stimulus.

"There should be further easing, but large-scale easing is unlikely," Liao Qun, Hong Kong-based economist for Citic Bank International, told AFP.

"The economy does not need a strong stimulus, as long as it's enough to help it stabilise and not slide further."


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