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China's trade surplus drops sharply in February: official data

by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) March 10, 2008
China's trade surplus shrank in February to a third of the level in the same month a year ago, customs authorities said Monday, as analysts said the US economic slowdown was starting to bite.

The surplus of 8.56 billion dollars in February compared with a surplus of 23.8 billion dollars a year earlier, according to customs.

The lower surplus came amid a 35.1 percent rise in imports, which totalled 78.8 billion dollars in February, compared to a mere 6.5 percent increase in exports, which hit 87.4 billion dollars.

Exports in January had risen by 26.7 percent from the same month a year ago, previous reports showed.

Economists had been expecting weakening export performance, partly as a result of the US economic woe making American consumers less avid buyers of Chinese-made goods.

Mingchun Sun, a Hong Kong-based analyst with Lehman Brothers, said the slowdown was also caused by unprecedented bad weather over the Lunar New Year holiday that placed huge pressure on China's infrastructure.

"Electricity shortages forced many factories to be shut down, while transport chaos affected production and exports," he said in a research note.

"That said, we think China's export growth is definitely on a weakening trend, as the global economic downturn gradually shows its impact on China."

He also said February 2007 had seen a surge in exports ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday as manufacturers were nervous about anticipated value-added tax rebate cuts. There had been no similar surge this year.

Andy Xie, an independent economist, said the export sector, particularly in the manufacturing heartland in southern China, was facing unprecedented pressure.

"This year, with the stagnation in Japan and the United States, we are seeing an overall deterioration of the trade surplus, which has been going on for 12 months," he told AFP.

"Exporters have been destroyed and are not making money because of a combination of rising labour costs and other price increases they face."

Feng Yuming, a Shanghai-based economist with Oriental Securities, said the rapid growth in the value of imports was mainly due to soaring commodity prices.

"Looking at figures over past months, we can find that the imports growth should be mainly attributed to price factors," he said.

A rise in global demand has led to record prices in commodities ranging from oil, wheat and soybeans to steel and gold.

Feng said although the export figures are likely to rebound in March, he expected exports to grow only around 16 percent this year.

Xie said he thought export growth could even slip into single digits.

China's trade surplus hit a record high of 262.2 billion dollars last year, up 47.7 percent from 2006, earlier customs figures showed.

China moved its currency, the yuan, away from a peg to the US dollar in July 2005, and has since allowed it to strengthen by about 15 percent against the greenback.

However, foreign voices continue to urge China to do more and allow its currency to rise at a faster pace, amid complaints that exporters gain an unfair advantage from an artificially weak yuan.

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China set for 30 years more years of fast growth: World Bank's Lin
Beijing (AFP) March 7, 2008
China's economy will keep growing fast for up to 30 more years thanks to its vast domestic market and foreign investment, incoming World Bank chief economist Justin Lin Yifu said Friday.







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