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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Climate chief pleads for 'high-level' push on Kyoto
by Staff Writers
Bonn (AFP) June 17, 2011

New talks on global warming ended here Friday with the UN's climate chief calling on world leaders to help resolve the fate of the Kyoto Protocol ahead of a key meeting six months down the road.

"There is a growing realisation that resolving the future of the Kyoto Protocol is an essential task this year and will require high-level political guidance," said Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the 194-nation UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

"By Durban, governments need to come forward with options that will be acceptable to all parties," she told journalists, referring to the UNFCCC's annual gathering, taking place in November 28-December 9 in Durban, South Africa.

Kyoto is the only international agreement with binding targets for curbing greenhouse gases.

But its future is uncertain because China and the United States, the world's No. 1 and No. 2 polluters, are not subject to its constraints.

A first commitment period covering nearly 40 industrialised countries -- except for Washington, which refuses to ratify Kyoto -- expires at the end of 2012.

Japan, Canada and Russia have said they will not sign up for a new round of carbon-cutting vows.

The European Union (EU) says it will only do so if other nations -- including emerging giants such as China and India, which do not have binding targets -- beef up efforts in a parallel negotiating arena.

"It is not enough for the EU to simply sign up for another commitment period," said Belgium's Jurgen Lefevere, representing the European Commission.

"We only represent about 11 percent of global emissions. We need a solution for the remaining 89 percent as well."

Developing countries, though, insisted the Protocol be renewed in its current form.

The Protocol remains critically important because it contains proven market-based mechanisms for CO2 reduction and tools to quantify and monitor such efforts, Figueres argued.

If Kyoto collapses, it could stymie progress elsewhere in the hugely complex, dual-track talks, negotiators here warned.

Figueres said the fate of Kyoto is closely linked to progress in the parallel UNFCCC negotiations, which include all nations under the Convention.

These talks made headway in Bonn on technical matters, but remain deeply riven on the core issue of how to share out the task of slashing carbon pollution.

"Governments are realising that this link needs to be dealt with to get to a global solution, and that will require high-level leadership during the year."

There will be at least three opportunities for such dialogue between now and late November, she said, including a meeting of heads of state organised by Mexico on the margin of the UN General Assembly in September.

One option discussed being closed doors in Bonn is a "political" deal to extend Kyoto commitments "for one, two, three years," said Jose Romero, a veteran climate negotiator for Switzerland.

"That gives us some air to look for a solution" under the other track of the climate talks, he said.

The United States recognizes actions taken by China to slow the growth of its carbon emissions, but said they should be more transparent.

"That's the conversation that we are currently having with the developing government," said US negotiator Jonathan Pershing, who said he had met separately in Bonn with both his Chinese and Indian counterparts.

"But we haven't agreed on that. That is one of the outcomes that we think would be very significant in Durban."

Even if a scaled-down second round of Kyoto commitments -- including the EU and a few other small nations -- may be acceptable to some developing countries.

"It is better to have that than having nothing at all," said Grenada's Dessima Williams, chair of the the 43-nation Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS).

At the same time, rich nations must "raise their level of ambition," she told AFP.

Under current trajectories, "we are looking at a 4.0 degree Celsius (9.2 degree Fahrenheit) increase in global average temperatures," she said.

The figure of 2.0 C (3.6 F) above pre-industrial levels is widely viewed as a safety threshold although many scientists say it is no guarantee of preventing extensive damage to the climate system, inflicting worsening floods, droughts, storms and rising seas.




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UN talks must save Kyoto or 'collapse': AOSIS
Bonn (AFP) June 17, 2011 - UN talks struggling to forge a response to global warming must salvage the embattled Kyoto Protocol or risk collapse, the head of a 43-nation bloc of island nations said Friday.

"Some countries are willing to commit to a second commitment period," said Grenada's Dessima Williams, chair of the the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS).

"It is not anywhere near the full coverage that will be needed," she told AFP on the sidelines of a negotiating session of the 194-nation UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), ending Friday.

"However, it is either that or the complete collapse of the system."

Kyoto, which covers 37 industrialised countries, is the only international deal with binding targets for curbing greenhouse gases.

A first commitment period expires at the end of 2012, and the fate of the treaty remains in limbo.

Japan, Canada and Russia have all opted out of new commitments, and the European Union has said that its further participation cannot be taken for granted.

Washington helped craft the protocol but never ratified it, saying it was fatally flawed because developing giants such as China -- which has since become the world's top carbon polluter -- faced no emissions constraints.

These major emerging economies and other developing countries today insist that rich countries must renew their carbon cutting vows.

AOSIS nations are likely to be hit first and hardest by climate change, especially rising sea levels and more intense storms, scientists say. Impacts are already being felt, said Williams.

"We are seeing more extreme weather events, loss of water supply, fish stocks are not looking good, coral reefs are in trouble, and climate scientists are predicting a very intense hurricane season," she said.

"The Marshall Islands and other nations are beginning to loose not just coast but large swathes of territory."

Despite, or perhaps because, of these impacts, the AOSIS bloc has shown an increasing willingness to find a middle ground in the complex, multi-track climate talks.

Even if a scaled-down second round of Kyoto commitments -- including the European Union and a few other small nations -- only covers 12 or 13 percent of global CO2 emissions, the Protocol should be preserved, Williams insisted.

"It is better to have that than having nothing at all," she said. "The value of the Kyoto Protocol is that it helps us to collect data, and to observe and to monitor."

At the same time, she added, rich nations must "raise their level of ambition."

Under current trajectories, "We are looking at a 4.0 degree Celsius (9.2 degree Fahrenheit) increase in global average temperatures," she said.

Any increase of more than 2.0 C (3.6 F) above preindustrial levels puts Earth is a danger zone, UN scientists have said.





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