The study found that two-thirds of respondents believe the world may achieve net zero CO2 emissions in the latter half of this century. This suggests cautious optimism about ongoing mitigation efforts to curb emissions and possibly steer toward the Paris Agreement's temperature goals. Additionally, most scientists believe that atmospheric CO2 removal technology could eliminate up to five gigatons (GtCO2) annually by 2050, a figure still lower than what may be necessary to hit the targets.
"We wanted to survey some of the top climate experts in the world to get some insight into their perceptions of different future climate outcomes," said lead author Seth Wynes, formerly of Concordia University and now an assistant professor at the University of Waterloo. "These scientists also engage in important climate change communication, so their optimism or pessimism can affect how decision-makers are receiving messages about climate change."
More effort required to prevent climate disaster
While some optimism exists, the 211 survey respondents were largely pessimistic about meeting the Paris Agreement's goals under current climate policies. A significant 86 percent estimate that global temperatures will rise above 2 C by 2100, with a median forecast of 2.7 C - levels that could have devastating impacts on the planet.
Damon Matthews, a professor at Concordia's Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, emphasized that these figures are not predictions but reflect what the scientific community currently believes. "These responses are not a prediction of future warming, but rather a gauge of what the scientific community believes," said Matthews. "The answers are surprisingly consistent with previous estimates of what would happen if our current climate policies continued without any increase in ambition, which range from about 2.5 to 3 C."
The survey also included questions about how respondents perceived their peers' views on climate outcomes. "There was a strong correlation between what people believe and what they sense their peers believe," Wynes said. "They had a bias to see their beliefs as representative of the larger group. This can indicate an overconfidence in their own beliefs, so we think this is a good opportunity for them to reevaluate what their peers actually believe."
Science informs, but policy decides
Matthews, himself an IPCC author, acknowledged that while scientists' perspectives on climate scenarios are important, they are not enough. Broader societal and policy changes will ultimately determine how fast emissions can be reduced. "Climate scientists certainly have expertise in climate systems and energy transitions, but it will be policy implementation and societal change that actually determine how quickly emissions drop," he said.
"Ultimately, the decision as to what we do and how we respond to the climate challenge is up to policymakers and the public that they represent, and I think the full range of outcomes is still very much on the table."
Research Report:Perceptions of carbon dioxide emission reductions and future warming among climate experts
Related Links
Department of Geography, Planning and Environment Concordia University
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation
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