Significant migration is anticipated, with border policies becoming more stringent. Researchers emphasize that "the time is ripe to highlight the benefits of collaboration between nations and regions."
By showcasing the advantages of migration, particularly with aging populations, global leaders can ensure a better future for both people and societies.
The paper, published in the journal One Earth, is authored by an international team of climate and social scientists from universities including Wageningen, Exeter, and Nanjing.
"Millions of people are projected to be displaced by sea-level rise in the next decades, and two billion could be exposed to extreme heat beyond their experience by the end of the century," said Professor Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University.
"Ignoring or downplaying the inevitable global redistribution of people would lead to geo-political instability, and a polarised and fractured world. Instead, the international community must come together to rethink mobility and cultural integration to ensure a benign transition to this new world."
To date, most migration with significant climate impacts has occurred within countries, with people relocating from areas facing long-term agricultural decline or fleeing conditions like coastal erosion or extreme events. While larger nations can accommodate this with diverse climate zones, smaller countries cannot.
The paper also highlights that a "skewed distribution of wealth and associated power" hinders people's ability to move both within and between states.
Professor Tim Lenton from Exeter's Global Systems Institute stated, "While many animal species are already changing their geographical distribution in response to climate change, and humans have done so for thousands of years, humanity now faces increasing barriers to this. Global warming exacerbates existing inequalities, making habitability a major political challenge of this century. Concrete cooperation is now needed to match migrant flows with demand for labour, to the benefit of the Global South and the developed world alike."
The paper suggests that significant reforms in the food system, supported by worker movement, could boost production while conserving nature, particularly if meat consumption decreases in favor of plant-based diets.
Migration can thus be beneficial for both people and the climate, but leaders must advocate for the economic benefits and effective integration.
"Playing up the social costs of migration appeals to national identity motivations, but fails to overcome problems from ageing populations," said Professor Neil Adger. "Instead, leaders should focus on the economic and social benefits of new populations and effective integration, which benefits newcomers and original inhabitants alike. Every corner of the world needs to anticipate the coming climate crisis and promote the safe and beneficial movement of people as conditions change."
Research Report:Anticipating the global redistribution of people and property
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