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Five years on, Iraq still a nation at war

by Staff Writers
Baghdad (AFP) Mar 19, 2008
Five years after US-led invasion troops swept through Iraq, feared dictator Saddam Hussein is dead and an elected government sits in Baghdad -- but Iraqis remain beset by rampant violence, political stalemate, economic woes and the humiliation of a foreign occupation.

Saddam's regime was toppled in just three weeks in what US President George W. Bush declared as the first bombs dropped on Baghdad in March 2003 was a campaign to disarm Iraq and "free its people."

But fear of Saddam's hated secret police has been replaced by a new terror, with Iraq still being hit on a daily basis by insurgent attacks and Sunni-Shiite violence where victims are counted in scores.

Although the level of violence has dropped over the past few months, the top US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, says the US and Iraqi governments both recognise the nation's leaders have not made sufficient progress in settling their political differences.

"Scoring a military victory is easy, but a political victory is more difficult to achieve," said Mustapha Alani, director of security studies at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Centre.

He said Washington, having dismantled Saddam's regime, was now "unable to put it back together."

In the five years since the United States unleashed its "Shock and Awe" operation, violence has killed tens and probably hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and well over 4,000 members of the US-led foreign forces.

Independent website Iraqbodycount.org estimates the number of civilian deaths at up to 90,000 although other figures, including Iraqi government and UN statistics, are much higher.

Despite their rapid victory in 2003, US soldiers today are routinely targeted by rockets, roadside bombs, and suicide attacks, mired in a war against Al-Qaeda fighters, especially in northern Iraq.

Central, western and southern Iraq are now relatively calm, however.

A "surge" in US forces, which for about one year increased the level of troops to more than 160,000, is clearly a major factor in cracking down on violence, along with a US programme that pays men, including former insurgents, to join local anti-Qaeda defence groups known as the "Awakening."

Another reason for the decline is radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's orders to his powerful Mahdi Army militia to freeze its activities.

The Pentagon once branded him as the biggest threat to stability in Iraq but today US commanders address him with the honorific title Sayyid.

Last month, Shiite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki boasted that "national reconciliation among Iraqis has succeeded" and that the spectre of civil war had been banished.

However, Petraeus told the Washington Post on Friday that "no one" in the US and Iraqi governments "feels that there has been sufficient progress by any means in the area of national reconciliation" or in the provision of basic public services.

"The government does have to achieve legitimacy in the eyes of many in the Sunni Arab community, if not most," Petreaus said. "There's no question. Actually, it has to achieve legitimacy in the eye of all Iraqis."

In other areas, progress has been painfully slow.

The economy, the main concern of Iraqis after security, is a wreck. Unemployment is running at between 25 and 50 percent of the workforce, according to government figures.

There are also various figures about oil, the country's main money-earner and a key source of contention between rival political factions. While Iraqi officials say production is at 2.9 million barrels a day, higher than pre-war levels, oil analysts believe it is really around 2.2 million.

Public services like water and electricity have yet to be fully restored, despite construction projects and announcements that service has been re-established. Whole sections of Baghdad remain without electricity, while the lucky neighbourhoods get power only sporadically.

Government calls for Iraqi refugees to return to help rebuild the country have been largely ignored. Fewer than 50,000 have returned from neighbouring Jordan and Syria, where more than two million have fled.

The government's inability to gain the trust of its citizens is reflected in an alarming failure of the institutions that emerged after the fall of the old regime, which were supposed to mark the start of a representative democracy.

Iraq's parliament, dominated by an alliance of Shiite and Kurdish parties, has done little to approve crucial legislation, and has been paralysed by competition from parties bent on addressing their narrow sectarian interests.

Maliki's government has lost about half of its cabinet ministers through resignations. Since last year it has been functioning with around 25 ministers of its nearly 40-member cabinet.

Some Iraqis, including many from his own Shiite community, accuse him of serving the interests of a small circle of privileged and wealthy people.

Last year the US embassy in Baghdad documented a high level of corruption at all levels of government, and questioned the Maliki administration's willingness to crack down on crooked practices.

Its report served as a red flag for Bush as US public support for war sinks, and hinted that his administration may be reducing its support for Maliki.

Aside from the heavy loss of life, the war is estimated to have already cost the United States more than 400 billion dollars -- making it the most expensive conflict in history, and far beyond the original estimates.

What are the results? US credibility has been eroded in the Middle East; the influence of Iran, Washington's nemesis, has grown; and the price of oil has spiked to record levels, with negative repercussions on the global economy.

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Iraq: a three trillion dollar war?
Washington (AFP) Mar 19, 2008
The war in Iraq has already cost the United States more than 400 billion dollars by the most conservative tally, but the total bill could surpass three trillion dollars, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz.







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