A research team led by Dr. Florian Zabel and Prof. Dr. Ruth Delzeit from the Department of Environmental Sciences at the University of Basel has explored which regions are most vulnerable to this future agricultural expansion. Their findings have been published in the journal 'Nature Sustainability'.
Higher Production Comes with Environmental Costs
The researchers created a land-use model to pinpoint the areas worldwide most likely to see agricultural growth, using both socio-economic and agro-ecological criteria. The study revealed that new agricultural lands are likely to develop primarily in the tropics, where potential for increased production remains high despite climate change.
However, this expansion is not without consequence. The study estimates that land-use changes could result in the emission of approximately 17 gigatons of CO2 over time, nearly half of the current annual global CO2 emissions. Additionally, biodiversity in these regions could drop by 26 percent. "The expansion of agricultural land would therefore be a concerning development, particularly for global climate protection and efforts to preserve biodiversity," said co-lead researcher Florian Zabel.
Conservation Offers Economic and Environmental Benefits
In response to global conservation efforts, the researchers also assessed various scenarios regarding the enforcement of conservation policies. They found that while preventing agricultural expansion into forests, wetlands, and protected areas might shift the pressure to grasslands, which are richer in biodiversity, these measures could still be beneficial.
Economically, the study found that conservation efforts do not significantly impact the gross domestic product of affected regions and result in only a slight reduction in global agricultural output. "In return, the greenhouse gas emissions caused by expansion are significantly reduced," said lead author Julia Schneider of Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat Munchen. This outcome is crucial in the context of global food security, indicating that the trade-offs between agricultural production and environmental conservation can be balanced.
Strategic Planning for Protected Areas
The study also contributes to global conservation goals, such as those outlined in the Kunming-Montreal Biodiversity Convention, which aims to protect 30 percent of the world's land surface by 2030. By identifying regions at high risk of agricultural expansion, the research provides valuable insights for planning protected areas that maximize benefits for climate, biodiversity, and economic interests. "This enables the planning of protected areas in such a way that they achieve the broadest possible impact on as many objectives as possible, such as climate and biodiversity protection, while also considering economic interests," added Florian Zabel.
Research Report:Effects of profit-driven cropland expansion and conservation policies
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