Solar Energy News  
WATER WORLD
Ice sheet uncertainties could mean models underestimate sea level rise
by Brooks Hays
Washington DC (UPI) Dec 18, 2020

If climate change continues unabated, sea level rise could exceed levels forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, according to a new study.

The research, published Friday in the journal One Earth, suggests even the world's best sea level rise prediction models are riddled with uncertainty.

Many of them, authors of the new paper contend, are likely underestimating the rate at which polar ice sheets are becoming destabilized.

Because the mechanics of polar ice loss are mostly hidden beneath thick layers of ice or a few hundred feet of ocean water, modeling the behavior of Greenland and Antarctica's ice sheets remains exceedingly difficult.

"The polar regions are the most unexplored places on our planet," lead author Martin Siegert, glaciologist and professor at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, told UPI in an email.

"Satellite observations are an excellent way to find out what's happening, but they only measure effects at the surface of the ice/ocean," Siegert wrote.

"The processes controlling ice dynamics are all subsurface, and so while their effects on the surface can be measured, the processes themselves can't be resolved by satellites."

For the new study, Siegert and his research partners surveyed the models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to make predictions about effects of global warming on polar ice loss and sea level rise.

Their analysis revealed the models' biggest blind spots, most of which can be found where ocean currents meet the underbelly of ice shelves.

"Some uncertainties can be resolved with better subsurface measurement, such as the ocean cavity beneath ice shelves, but the key issues are how various components of the system will interact," Siegert said.

"Specifically, how will ocean warmth flow under ice shelves, and melt the ice base and grounding line?"

To account for the many blind spots of the world's best ice sheet models, scientists must assign values -- rather than calculating values -- to a variety of important processes, including ice flow, fracturing, ice melting and ocean-heat transfer. Scientists call this imprecise approach "parameterization."

Despite the uncertainties that are baked into theses models, their predictions are being used to form important climate change policies. That's a problem, according to Siegert.

"This parameterization is perfectly valid in the absence of observations -- what else can they do? -- but a health warning is needed so that the results can be interpreted fairly, recognizing that the parameterization may lead to an inability to model the real situation and interaction between processes," he said.

The designers of the world's best ice sheet simulations are aware of their models' shortcomings. In fact, efforts to understand the interplay between ice and ocean water along the grounding lines -- where the ocean floor meets the bottom of an ice sheet -- have greatly improve sea level rise precision models over the last few years.

Researchers hope that robotic technologies will continue to provide new insights into the dynamics at play beneath ice shelves.

"Robotics will surely play a key role in accessing challenging to get to places in the ice-shelf-ocean-ice-sheet system," Siegert said. "This is the key location where ice sheet change is being driven, and without automated devices we will be left with sparse knowledge."

Despite the progress, the authors of the new paper argue that when it comes to crafting public policy related sea level rise, the predictions of current models should be treated as conservative estimates.

Previous studies of ice and sediment cores, as well as surveys of ancient marine fossils, suggest the planet's ice sheets rapidly destabilized during ancient periods of global warming, leading to more dramatic rates of sea level rise than are occurring today.

"We need to make decision makers more aware of the potential for [3-feet-plus] sea level rise this century," Siegert said.

"Through this awareness, plans for coastal and sea defense may need to be formed in such a way that they can be easily added to as and when sea level gets higher. This incremental adaptation would seem sensible, but we need to make the decisions to form such solutions now."


Related Links
Water News - Science, Technology and Politics


Thanks for being here;
We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain.

With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords.

Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year.

If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Contributor
$5 Billed Once


credit card or paypal
SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter
$5 Billed Monthly


paypal only


WATER WORLD
Pandemic disrupted commercial fishing in Northeast, study finds
Washington DC (UPI) Dec 18, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted commercial fishing activities in the Northeastern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic, according to a new study. Though many fishers suffered a decline in income, survey results - published Thursday in the journal PLOS One - suggest many were able to adapt and continue fishing through the market disruptions triggered by the pandemic. With indoor dining services restricted across much of the country, restaurants have been especially hard hit by the pandem ... read more

Comment using your Disqus, Facebook, Google or Twitter login.



Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle

WATER WORLD
Cornell University to extract energy from manure to meet peak heating demands

Fruity energy, spidery lenses: Nature-inspired solutions in 2020

Scientists suggested a method to improve performance of methanol fuel cells

Shedding light on the dark side of biomass burning pollution

WATER WORLD
'Chaotic' way to create insectlike gaits for robots

U.S. Army, Clemson University partner on autonomous vehicle project

Northrop Grumman invests in Deepwave Digital's AI

USAF makes history with first flight using artificial intelligence

WATER WORLD
Norway launches major wind power research centre

Supersized wind turbines generate clean energy - and surprising physics

NREL advanced manufacturing research moves wind turbine blades toward recyclability

Policy, not tech, spurred Danish dominance in wind energy

WATER WORLD
New engine capability accelerates advanced vehicle research

EU court finds against 'Dieselgate' car firms

Poland taps coal region for first electric car plant

Uber rival Ola to build world's biggest scooter factory in India

WATER WORLD
Waste to treasure: Crayfish shells to store energy

Engineers go microbial to store energy, sequester CO2

Massive underground instrument finds final secret of our sun's fusion

New hard-carbon anode material for sodium-ion batteries will solve the lithium conundrum

WATER WORLD
Ukraine to stop sending spent nuclear fuel to Russia

Russian nuclear-powered ship turns back after emergency repairs

UK set for talks with France's EDF over nuclear plant

'Serious' nuclear incident in Finland, but no radiation leak

WATER WORLD
Energy nominee Granholm brings Detroit savvy to green push

How Earth could be entirely powered by sustainable energy

EU leaders save landmark budget, but spar over climate

UK insists can achieve 68 percent emissions cut by 2030

WATER WORLD
Fire-resistant tropical forest on brink of disappearance

Land ecosystems are becoming less efficient at absorbing CO2

When dinosaurs disappeared, forests thrived

Storing carbon through tree planting, preservation costs more than thought









The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2024 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. All articles labeled "by Staff Writers" include reports supplied to Space Media Network by industry news wires, PR agencies, corporate press officers and the like. Such articles are individually curated and edited by Space Media Network staff on the basis of the report's information value to our industry and professional readership. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Statement Our advertisers use various cookies and the like to deliver the best ad banner available at one time. All network advertising suppliers have GDPR policies (Legitimate Interest) that conform with EU regulations for data collection. By using our websites you consent to cookie based advertising. If you do not agree with this then you must stop using the websites from May 25, 2018. Privacy Statement. Additional information can be found here at About Us.