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NUKEWARS
Iran nuclear talks enter dangerous new phase
by Staff Writers
Vienna (AFP) May 14, 2014


Iran nuclear talks: tricky issues to watch
Iran and six world powers will begin their latest round of nuclear talks in Vienna on Wednesday, when they start drafting the text of a comprehensive and potentially historic deal.

Here is a rundown of the main issues that have to be resolved before the deadline for a deal on July 20, when a six-month interim agreement reached in November 2013 expires.

Enrichment:

Comments from both sides indicate that negotiators are still some way apart on the issue, which is the big one.

The "enrichment" of uranium makes it suitable for peaceful atomic uses such as power generation and for medical isotopes, but when highly enriched it can go in a nuclear weapon.

Iran currently has some 20,000 centrifuges -- machines that enrich uranium -- including around 1,000 faster IR-2M models. Some 10,000, all older IR-1 models, are in operation.

Under the November deal, Iran suspended the enrichment of uranium to 20-percent purities -- a short step from weapons-grade (90 percent) -- but has continued low enrichment (to five percent).

The powers want Iran to slash the number of centrifuges, possibly by shutting down the Fordo facility, or by agreeing a cap on the output per centrifuge.

Iran's research into newer centrifuges up to 15 times faster will also have to be addressed, experts say, as will Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles, enough for several bombs if purified further.

Arak:

Under the November deal, Iran froze construction of a new nuclear reactor at Arak, which once running could provide Tehran with weapons-grade plutonium.

Once completed, Iran could extract from Arak's spent fuel between five and 10 kilogrammes (10-20 pounds) of plutonium a year, enough for one nuclear weapon, analysts estimate.

The reactor, long plagued by delays, would have to be running for 12-18 months before plutonium could be obtained and to extract it would need an additional facility, which would be tough to hide.

In April, Iran's nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi said the issue was "virtually resolved" after Tehran made proposals to change the design of the reactor.

Inspections:

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN watchdog, regularly inspects Iran's nuclear facilities and painstakingly accounts for every ounce of nuclear material.

Under November's deal, the IAEA was given more oversight, including daily inspections of certain sites, access to places such as uranium mines and more details on Iran's facilities and plans.

The powers want enhanced inspections to be made permanent, possibly by Iran adhering to the so-called "additional protocol" of its inspections agreement with the IAEA.

Possible military dimensions:

The powers also want Iran to answer the IAEA's long-standing questions about evidence suggesting that before 2003, and possibly since, Tehran looked into developing nuclear weapons.

Iran has rejected such claims, saying they are based on faulty intelligence from the CIA and Israel's Mossad -- intelligence that it has not been allowed to see.

Iran has promised to explain to the IAEA its use of certain detonators that could be used in a nuclear weapon -- they also have non-nuclear applications -- by May 15, but this is only the beginning.

Diplomats told AFP that Iran has failed to provide satisfactory answers on its need for such detonators, and the IAEA said on Monday that "work continues".

Ballistic missiles:

The powers also want a final deal to cover Iran's development of ballistic missiles, which could in theory carry nuclear warheads. The UN Security Council called in 2010 for a halt.

Iran says that its missile programme should not be part of the talks because they have nothing to do with its nuclear programme, which it insists is purely peaceful.

Diplomatic efforts by Iran and world powers towards a potentially historic nuclear deal enter treacherous uncharted territory Wednesday with a new round of talks in Vienna.

After three meetings that Washington says have enabled both sides to "understand each other's positions", the negotiators aim this time to start drafting the actual text of an accord.

Success could resolve one of the most intractable geopolitical problems of the 21st century, but failure could plunge the Middle East into conflict and start a regional nuclear arms race.

"If the odds of the talks collapsing are high, the stakes of failure are higher," Ali Vaez, Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, told AFP. "Time is of the essence."

The five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany want Iran to reduce in scope its nuclear programme so as to make any dash to build an atomic bomb virtually impossible.

In return the Islamic republic, which says its nuclear activities are purely peaceful, wants the lifting of all United Nations' and Western sanctions, which have hit its economy hard.

Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, installed by bridge-building new President Hassan Rouhani last year, said after the last round that there was agreement on "50-60 percent" of issues.

But with both sides sticking to the mantra that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" -- one US negotiator likened the process to a "Rubik's Cube" -- this is not enough.

Arriving in Vienna Tuesday, both Iran and the United States sought to dampen expectations that a deal was within easy reach, with Zarif saying a "lot of effort" was still required.

A senior US official said the talks would be "very, very difficult" and that there were still "significant gaps" between the two sides and a "range of complicated issues".

"We do not know if Iran will be able to make the tough decisions they must to assure the world that they will not obtain a nuclear weapon and that their programme is for entirely peaceful purposes," the official said.

She added that optimism raised in some quarters has "gotten way out of control".

- Sticking points -

The parties aim to build on an interim deal struck in Geneva in November under which Iran froze certain activities for six months in return for minor sanctions relief. This expires on July 20.

Turning the Geneva deal into something permanent is a tall order, however, particularly with sceptical hardliners in the United States, Iran and Israel watching closely.

One major issue, the Arak reactor, appears to have been resolved, with Iran indicating the design could be modified to ease concerns that it could produce weapons-grade plutonium.

But others, most notably uranium enrichment and the sequence of sanctions relief "could be harder to bridge," Kelsey Davenport from the Arms Control Association told AFP.

Iran already has enough of low-enriched material for several bombs if it decided to "break out" and use its 20,000 so-called centrifuges to enrich this stockpile to weapons-grade.

The powers may therefore want Iran to slash the number of centrifuges, or to agree to a cap on output per machine, but this may be a hard sell since Iran's enrichment programme is a source of great national pride.

"Discussions on enrichment are and will be difficult," French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said on Monday.

Further hurdles to clear include Iran's development of new centrifuges that can enrich many times faster than the current models, and tougher inspections by the UN atomic watchdog.

Others are Iran's development of ballistic missiles, which could carry nuclear warheads -- it denies wanting atomic weapons -- and its answers to questions about past alleged "military dimensions" to its nuclear work.

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Related Links
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com
Learn about missile defense at SpaceWar.com
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Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com






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NUKEWARS
Iran, US warn of hard slog in nuclear talks
Vienna (AFP) May 13, 2014
Iranian and US officials in Vienna for a fourth round of nuclear talks cautioned Tuesday that there was still hard work to be done before a final deal can be reached. Arriving in Vienna for the negotiations aimed at drafting the text of an accord ahead of a July 20 deadline, Iran's foreign minister said "a lot of effort" was still needed. "If there are differences of opinion, which defin ... read more


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