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Joy in Brussels, but Macron faces tough EU challenges
By Marine LAOUCHEZ, Alex PIGMAN
Brussels (AFP) May 8, 2017


France's Macron seen as UN ally
United Nations, United States (AFP) May 8, 2017 - UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres on Monday quickly reached out to French President-elect Emmanuel Macron to schedule an early meeting and get to work on addressing climate change and a range of international issues.

Macron's election was welcome news at the United Nations as it battles to ward off plans from US President Donald Trump to cut funding to the world organization.

Guterres will write a letter to Macron to congratulate him and propose a meeting "in the very near future," said UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric, adding: "We look forward to rapid engagement."

Stressing that France is "a highly-valued partner of this organization", the UN spokesman said climate change, the fight against terrorism and peacekeeping were among the issues that would be discussed during a first meeting.

Macron, who defeated far-right leader Marine Le Pen in a runoff on Sunday, promised during the campaign to defend the Paris climate deal on combating global warming.

His firm support for the accord signed by 175 countries at the United Nations last year stands in contrast with Trump, who has threatened to pull out of the deal.

The US administration is expected to decide in the coming weeks on whether it will withdraw.

In a swipe at the United States, Macron released a video message inviting American climate scientists to move to France. "We like innovation, we want innovative people," he said in the message.

- Step into the void? -

France is also a leading voice on UN peacekeeping, which has come under heavy US pressure to draw down and close its missions, many of which are in Africa.

As the biggest contributor to the peacekeeping budget, the United States has made clear it wants to reduce its share and has begun a mission-by-mission review to assess whether some peace operations are no longer needed.

A former Socialist prime minister of Portugal, Guterres won backing early on from French President Francois Hollande in the race to be UN chief.

The top UN diplomat has worked closely with France since he took over from Ban Ki-moon on January 1.

"France now has an opportunity to both provide a real source of support to Guterres and possibly to step into a leadership role with Germany, Canada, Britain and a few others," said Bathsheba Crocker, a former US assistant secretary of state for international organizations affairs.

With the United States weighing a retreat from UN diplomacy, Crocker said France could "step into the void left by the US on a range of issues in Africa and take a primary role."

No timetable was given for a possible meeting with Macron, who will take the oath of office on Sunday.

Last month, Trump held a brief first meeting with Guterres at the White House, but there was no joint press conference or public handshake between the two men.

France's choice of pro-EU Emmanuel Macron over eurosceptic Marine Le Pen has sparked euphoria in Brussels, but analysts warn his ambitions for profound change in the European Union will prove challenging.

Praise for Macron poured in from the EU capital, with Europe's top officials hailing his win as a much needed check to a populist wave that delivered Brexit and the election of Donald Trump in the United States.

"Happy that the French chose a European future," said European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker as EU observers noted triumphantly on Twitter that Macron had the EU anthem "Ode to Joy" play as he took the stage for his victory rally.

Despite widespread doubts, analysts agreed that the sheer scale of his victory -- Macron beat Le Pen with 66 percent of the vote -- gave one of the EU's most powerful member states a small window to change the bloc.

This sweeping win is "a splendid opportunity to reform France and forge a deal with Germany and other European countries to strengthen the cohesion of the EU and the eurozone," said analyst Holger Schmieding of Berenberg Bank in Germany.

However, the results "also carry a stark warning (as) ... voters rebuked the traditional mainstream parties. Almost half of voters had fallen for anti-EU candidates in the first round," Schmieding added.

European Parliament President Antonio Tajani told AFP that Macron, and those celebrating his victory, should not ignore the lessons of Le Pen.

"We must begin to work to change Europe because we must not underestimate the voters who voted for Le Pen and those who stayed at home," Tajani said.

- 'Politically difficult' -

Macron, a former banker and economy minister, wants to strengthen the EU and the eurozone in deeper ways than any major leader in Europe has dared in a generation.

His changes could involve giving the EU more powers and they are extremely popular with EU officials in Brussels.

Macron's promises include a plan to set up a separate budget for the 19 countries that use the common currency. He also proposes giving the eurozone its own parliament and finance minister.

"His reform programme aligns perfectly with the European framework (in Brussels)," said analyst Amandine Crespy at ULB university in Brussels.

Until now, ideas involving more Europe have been largely ignored as too idealistic when nationalism and euroscepticism were on the rise across the EU.

"Pushing through these reforms at EU level could prove politically difficult as other EU partners may want to focus on alternative priorities such as migration and security," said Robin Huguenot-Noel, policy analyst at the European Policy Centre.

- 'Brave the protests' -

The first and crucial step will be to get Germany, the bloc's most powerful member, onside.

To do that, Macron is banking on delivering to Germany what it has always wanted from France: meaningful pro-market reforms.

"That's why the win is reassuring and many in the EU hope that France will move on with fiscal reforms like other countries have done," Crespy said.

But Macron's willingness to placate Germany has led critics at home to portray him as the puppet of Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Le Pen hit out before the polls that France would be governed by a woman after the vote -- either herself or Merkel.

Macron will get his first taste of the challenges ahead on Thursday when the European Commission delivers it economic forecasts for EU members.

The expectation is that France will once again be in the firing line for public overspending and in danger of facing penalties for not delivering on reforms.

Macron has pledged to do so in his first weeks in office but the proposed changes will likely face fury in France.

"Macron will need to brave some protests. But unlike (President Francois) Hollande before him, he now has the mandate to do so," said Schmieding.

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Mind Your Own Business, Stay Away From Russian Ports - Moscow on US Bill
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