Limiting global warming to 1.5C could avoid around 3.3 million cases of dengue fever per year in Latin America and the Caribbean alone - according to new research from the University of East Anglia (UEA).

A new report published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) reveals that limiting warming to the goal of the UN Paris Agreement would also stop dengue spreading to areas where incidence is currently low.

A global warming trajectory of 3.7C could lead to an increase of up to 7.5 million additional cases per year by the middle of this century.

Dengue fever is a tropical disease caused by a virus that is spread by mosquitoes, with symptoms including fever, headache, muscle and joint pain. It is endemic to over 100 countries, and infects around 390 million people worldwide each year, with an estimated 54 million cases in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Because the mosquitoes that carry and transmit the virus thrive in warm and humid conditions, it is more commonly found in areas with these weather conditions. There is no specific treatment or vaccine for dengue and in rare cases it can be lethal.

Lead researcher Dr Felipe Colon-Gonzalez, from UEA's School of Environmental Sciences and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, said: "There is growing concern about the potential impacts of climate change on human health. While it is recognised that limiting warming to 1.5C would have benefits for human health, the magnitude of these benefits remains mostly unquantified.

"This is the first study to show that reductions in warming from 2C to 1.5C could have important health benefits." The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5C above preindustrial levels.

The team studied clinical and laboratory confirmed dengue reports in Latin America and used computer models to predict the impacts of warming under different climate scenarios.

They found that limiting global warming to 2C could reduce dengue cases by up to 2.8 million cases per year by the end of the century compared to a scenario in which the global temperature rises by 3.7C.

Limiting warming further to 1.5C produces an additional drop in cases of up to half a million per year.

Southern Mexico, the Caribbean, northern Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela and coastal Brazil will be most affected by increases in dengue cases.

Brazil would benefit the most from limiting warming to 1.5C with up to half a million cases avoided per year by the 2050s and 1.4 million avoided cases per year by 2100.

The team also found that limiting global warming would also limit the expansion of the disease towards areas where incidence is currently low such as Paraguay and northern Argentina.

Co-author Dr Iain Lake, also from UEA, added: "Understanding and quantifying the impacts of warming on human health is crucial for public health preparedness and response.

"Warming has already reached 1C above pre-industrial levels, and the current trajectory, if countries meet their international pledges to reduce CO2, is around 3C - so clearly a lot more needs to be done to reduce CO2 and quickly if we are to avoid these impacts."

The research was led by the University of East Anglia, UK, in collaboration with colleagues at Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Brazil.

'Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5-2C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America' is published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) on Monday, May 28, 2018.

Related Links
University of East Anglia
Epidemics on Earth - Bird Flu, HIV/AIDS, Ebola

Tweet

Thanks for being here; We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain. With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords. Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year. If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Contributor $5 Billed Once credit card or paypal		SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter $5 Billed Monthly paypal only

Deadly malaria's evolution revealed
London, UK (SPX) May 25, 2018
The evolutionary path of the deadliest human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, has been revealed for the first time. This parasite is a member of a parasite family called the Laverania that only infect the great apes including humans, chimpanzees and gorillas. Scientists from the Wellcome Sanger Institute and their collaborators from the French National Centre for Scientific Research, French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD), and the International Centre for Medical Re ... read more