Targeting a military police barracks and a military airport, the Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) group demonstrated its firepower on Tuesday in a city usually spared major attacks.
It also made an impression at a time when the focus has been on northern Mali. Up there, the army and its Russian allies from the Wagner mercenary group and a new umbrella security body known as Africa Corps are trying to regain the upper hand in some areas.
"It's a double message: 'We're here, we strike where we want, including strategic sites'," said one North African researcher, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The attack was a severe blow to the junta -- in power in the West African nation after back-to-back coups in 2020 and 2021. They insist the situation is under control despite jihadists linked to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group roaming the Sahel region for years.
"The location and nature of the attack demonstrates the significant operational capabilities and reach of JNIM," Lucas Webber, an analyst with Tech Against Terrorism, told AFP.
"It also signals the inability of Mali's intelligence and security apparatus -- along with those of its Russian and regional allies -- to detect and intercept the plot beforehand," the analyst said.
The JNIM also sent a message to the Malian government and army by seeking to avoid civilian victims, Webber said.
"It likewise signals to neighbouring governments that JNIM can conduct similar attacks in neighbouring countries," he added.
- Propaganda -
Mali's leaders launched an extensive military operation in the north of the country where armed separatist groups and jihadists have lost control of several areas since last year.
In July, however, the army and its Russian allies suffered one of their biggest defeats.
The army admitted it had suffered a "large number" of deaths during the fighting in Tinzaouatene, near the Algerian border. A Telegram channel linked to the Wagner group confirmed losses among its ranks.
On the other side, the mainly Tuareg separatists claimed "a stunning victory", with one of their leaders saying dozens of Russians had been killed. The JNIM said it had killed 50 Russians and 10 Malians.
Previously, France's anti-jihadist Barkhane force, the United Nations stabilisation mission, MINUSMA, and European troops had contained the threat in the north, Hans-Jakob Schindler, head of the Counter-Extremism Project think tank, told AFP.
But the Malian junta ordered them out, turning instead to Russia for support.
Since then, said Schindler, "the Malian army haven't done a very good job, Africa Corps have committed atrocities against the local population" and the JNIM has profited by declaring through its propaganda that it is protecting the Malian population.
- Sowing 'uncertainty everywhere' -
Tuesday's dawn attack is also symbolic of progress in advancing southwards by the jihadists, whose stated objective is to reach the Gulf of Guinea by attacking coastal nations.
"The JNIM is in a long-term attrition strategy. The north is a sanctuary and they are pushing towards the south," the North African researcher said.
The jihadist group has the capacity to "do the same thing in Mopti (north of Bamako) or in Kayes (in the southwest)," said one Western expert on the region.
"They are going to create uncertainty everywhere and show they have real freedom to act, contrary to what the junta says," he said. It was a "strategy of permanent pressure and of harassment" without any intention of taking control of Bamako.
Mali, like its neighbours and allies Niger and Burkina Faso, appears unable to halt the trend.
Western countries, now classed as an enemy, have no means of gathering intelligence or taking action.
Their only option is to stop the advance on the south by working with coastal countries, Schindler said.
"This is what happens when you have chaos. Terrorists don't have limited ambitions," he said.
Mali's choice of growing isolation, like that of its Sahelian neighbours, worries Western powers.
"I would hope they realise they need to reconsider their options because their counter terrorism is not working," Tammy Palacios, analyst at the Modern War Institute at the United States' West Point military academy, said.
"They will face further instability from these groups if they don't consider perhaps international partnerships."
Rival militia violence in DR Congo kills 11
Bunia, Dr Congo (AFP) Sept 18, 2024 -
Attacks said to have taken place between rival militia factions have killed 11 people in north-east Democratic Republic of Congo, sources told AFP Wednesday.
The attacks took place on Monday and Tuesday in Ituri province between the Zaire Militia -- established in 2019 -- and the Codeco.
The Zaire militia claims to be fighting to defend the interests of the Hema ethnic community against the rival Lendu tribe, while Codeco claims to protect the Lendu against the Hema.
Early Monday morning men from the Zaire militia killed a member of the Lendu community, residents in Gina where the attack took place told AFP.
Members of Codeco retaliated by killing 10 people in the small town of Fataki including children, local sources told AFP.
"We buried 10 bodies," a humanitarian source told AFP on condition of anonymity.
The source added that seven of those buried were children - four from one family and three from another.
The victims, "killed with machetes (were) buried on Wednesday", Justin Gudza, a local leader, told AFP.
Gina is some 40 kilometres (25 miles) from Fataki where there are Congolese army and UN bases.
A Congolese army spokesman condemned the attacks.
"It has been more than two years since Fataki became a very calm environment, activities have resumed, communities live together, socialise", lieutenant Jules Ngongo told AFP.
At least six other people have been killed in the region by armed men since Sunday, Ruphin Mapela, an administrator of the Djugu territory in the Ituri region, told AFP.
The army will "hunt down all these armed groups that are resistant to the peace process," Ngongo said.
Inter-communal violence killed thousands in gold-rich Ituri from 1999-2003 until an intervention by European forces restored calm.
The conflict erupted again in 2017, resulting in thousands more deaths and the mass displacement of residents.
At least 12 soldiers killed in Niger attacks: army
Niamey, Niger (AFP) Sept 18, 2024 -
A series of ambushes and explosions across military-run Niger killed at least 12 soldiers and wounded 30 others, the army announced on state-run television Wednesday.
In the first attack, in western Tillaberi region on Sunday, "a horde of criminals who arrived in their hundreds" killed five soldiers and wounded 25 more, according to the army.
The ground and air response killed "more than 100 terrorists", the army said, without giving further details on the attackers.
On Monday, in the restive southwest Diffa region where there are frequent attacks by Boko Haram and the West African branch of the Islamic State group, five patrolling soldiers were killed by an improvised explosive device.
A "surgical strike" in retaliation "killed several terrorists" responsible, the army said.
In the latest attack, militants from a new resistance group called the Patriotic Movement for Freedom and Justice (MPLJ) claimed an operation against a military outpost in the Agadez region in the north.
The army said two soldiers were killed and six wounded in Tuesday's attack.
"A pursuit operation was immediately launched to track down the fleeing assailants who were heading for the Libyan border," the army added.
The MPLJ claims to have killed 14 soldiers and two gendarmes in the attack, and to have lost two of its own fighters.
Created in August, the MPLJ is an offshoot of the Patriotic Liberation Front (FPL) armed group, which is fighting the junta for the release of ousted president Mohamed Bazoum.
Democratically elected Bazoum was overthrown in a coup in July 2023 and has since then been held at the presidential palace.
While the military justified its power grab by citing the deteriorating security situation, violence persists.
According to the independent Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, around 1,500 civilians and soldiers in Niger have been killed in jihadist attacks over the past year, compared with 650 between July 2022 and 2023 when Bazoum was in charge.
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