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DEMOCRACY
Mubarak succession dominates Egypt polling

by Staff Writers
Cairo (UPI) Oct 19, 2010
Parliamentary elections scheduled for Nov. 29 will undoubtedly leave the ruling National Democratic Party in power, as it has been for decades.

But what transpires in the next few weeks will likely provide clues about what could happen in the far more crucial and far-reaching presidential elections next year.

The main opposition movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, announced Oct. 10 it would contest up to 30 percent of the seats up for grabs in the 508-member parliament. Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammed Badie demanded a fair vote, warning that if that didn't happen it would cast a shadow over the presidential election.

The Muslim Brotherhood, officially banned but allowed to field candidates as independents, jolted the ruling elite in the 2005 elections by winning one-fifth of the seats despite widespread allegations of fraud and vote-rigging.

Most Egyptians fear a media crackdown, wide-scale intimidation and other state harassment in the run-up to next month's voting.

But the overriding political issue in the Arab world's most populous nation is the presidential succession. President Hosni Mubarak, 82 and not in the best of health, has been in power since he filled the shoes of the assassinated Anwar Sadat in October 1981.

The burning question is will he run again, despite his health problems, or will he designate a successor? The front-runners to take over are his business tycoon son Gamal, 46, and Lt. Gen. Omar Suleiman, 74, powerful head of Egypt's intelligence service.

Their names have dominated the campaigning for the parliamentary poll, underlining how the contest for the national assembly is pretty much a warm-up for the more strategic contest due in the fall of 2011.

Although the result of the parliamentary race is, as usual, a foregone conclusion because only government-vetted and neutralized opposition groups can run, the next presidential election will determine where Egypt, one of the world's most ancient civilizations, is headed.

There is widespread opposition to Mubarak handing over to his son, who has been fast-tracked up the ladder to the ruling party's hierarchy in the last few years.

Few Egyptians favor a republican dynasty, as occurred in Syria in 2000, when strongman President Hafez Assad was succeeded by his son Bashar, a former London eye doctor who had been groomed for six years.

However, such dynasties appear to be in fashion right now, with Col. Moammar Gadhafi of Libya and President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen both preparing to hand over power to their sons. There are similar signals in Tunisia and Algeria.

For some time, the word was that Mubarak, who has never designated a successor, would most likely name Suleiman, the intelligence chief, as his vice president -- a step traditionally made before handing over the presidency -- so that he could assume the post for at least one year while easing in Gamal Mubarak.

By utilizing Suleiman, the elder Mubarak would be able to secure the support of the military which has traditionally had a major say in who occupies the Egyptian presidency.

The country's first president, Gamal Abdel Nasser (after whom Mubarak's son is named) came from the military, as did Mubarak, who had been air force commander before Sadat made him his vice president.

However, the Suleiman Plan is reported to have hit snags. The U.S.-based global security consultancy Stratfor, said Oct. 11 that Mubarak faced growing opposition within the armed forces for pushing Gamal.

Stratfor said that the Egyptian commander in chief and defense minister, Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, and chief of staff Lt. Gen. Sami Anan told Mubarak personally that the military didn't want his son in the presidency.

"There are rumors that high-ranking members of the armed forces are also opposed to Suleiman's candidacy, since they view that as one step closer to installing Gamal as president," Stratfor reported.

"Egypt appears to have reached a staged where the military is increasingly dictating terms to the executive authority … the military seems to be carving out a more prominent space for itself within the Egyptian ruling elite."

The real contest in Egypt, Stratfor concluded, "will not be fought in the upcoming parliamentary elections …

"Instead, with all eyes on Mubarak's health, the president and his allies are facing a growing struggle with the army's top brass over an increasingly troubled succession strategy."



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