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OIL AND GAS
Oil prices drop after China industrial profits sink
by Staff Writers
New York (AFP) Sept 28, 2015


IMF worries bruise crude oil prices
New York (UPI) Sep 28, 2015 - Expectations from the International Monetary Fund of a weakening global economy pushed crude oil prices down more than 2 percent in early Monday trading.

IMF managing director Christine Lagarde told French newspaper The Echoes the global economy was recovering from the latest recession, but the pace is decelerating.

"A global gross domestic product of 3.3 percent this year is no longer realistic. A forecast of 3.8 percent for next year is not either," she said. "We still remain above the 3 percent threshold."

A surplus of crude oil on the international market and weak demand has pushed crude oil prices to historic lows.

Brent crude oil was down 2.1 percent in early Monday trading to $47.55 per barrel, down about 50 percent from last year. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for crude oil prices, was down nearly 2.4 percent from the previous session to $44.62.

Early 2015 concerns about mounting Greek debt sparked concerns about growth in a stagnant European economy. More recently, signs of a slowdown in China, a lead oil consumer, put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Net gains in the U.S. labor market, meanwhile, overshadow signs the weak crude oil market is creating economic troubles in producer states like Texas.

Gerry Rice, a spokesman for the IMF, said last week all players in the global economy need to be vigilant.

"We are in an interconnected world," he said. "The spillovers are increasingly significant."

The IMF releases a formal forecast late Monday.

Oil prices dropped on Monday in the wake of a sharp fall in industrial profits in China, the latest sign of weakness in the world's largest energy consumer.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for delivery in November slid $1.27 to $44.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent North Sea crude for November delivery dropped to $47.34 a barrel in London, down $1.26 from Friday's settlement.

"The market is very volatile but it hasn't been just crude oil, it's across the board. Minerals are taking it on the chin as well as the stock market, which is putting a lot of pressure on commodities," said Oliver Sloup of iiTrader.com.

Sloup said the latest weak data from China amid faltering growth was a driver of the sell-off. Profits at China's major industrial companies fell almost nine percent in August from a year ago, the biggest decline since 2011, official data showed Monday.

"China is one of the biggest consumers of crude oil and if they're slowing down there's not going to be anyone really stepping up to fill those shoes in the near future," he said. "If they continue to slow, expect that to continue to put pressure on prices."

The oil market also reflected worries more generally about global growth, analysts said. Christine Lagarde, the chief of the International Monetary Fund, said the IMF would likely lower its growth forecasts for 2015 and 2016 because of the slowdown in China and other emerging markets.

In an interview with French business newspaper Les Echos published Monday, Lagarde said the July estimates of 3.3 percent growth for 2015 and 3.8 percent for 2016 was no longer realistic. But she said growth would remain above 3.0 percent.

"Lagarde basically said she was going to lower the growth for the entire universe and that's kind of weighing on the expectation" for crude-oil demand, said Phil Flynn at Price Futures Group.

The IMF will release its new growth projections on October 6.

burs-vs/pmh


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