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Okinawa vote to test Japan's relations with US

by Staff Writers
Tokyo (AFP) Nov 27, 2010
Japan's strained relations with key ally the United States may be tested again as Sunday's election for governor of Okinawa highlights deep opposition to a controversial US airbase on the island.

Japan and the United States squabbled for much of the past year over the relocation of the Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, amid hardening opposition on the southern island to the large US military presence there.

But high tensions in the region following a North Korean artillery attack on a South Korean island Tuesday and Tokyo's recent diplomatic spats with Beijing and Moscow highlight Japan's need for US security support, say analysts.

As a result Prime Minister Naoto Kan's government faces a tough task in cultivating an alliance referred to by US President Barack Obama as a security "cornerstone", while not angering voters at home, say analysts.

The issue is yet another headache for a government already under pressure over its handling of a faltering economy and rows with Moscow and Beijing.

On one hand, Kan "has to listen to real demands from Okinawa people, including concerns over the local economy," said Tsuneo Yoshihara, professor of international politics at Shobi University in Tokyo.

But "what's more important for Kan is to establish a solid security policy, as the Futenma base issue is rooted in Japan's heavy reliance on the United States for its national security," he said.

The base lies in an urban area of Okinawa, where residents have long complained about aircraft noise and the risk of accidents, and is set to be relocated to a coastal location on the island.

There are two main contenders in Okinawa's gubernatorial election -- incumbent Hirokazu Nakaima, 71, and Yoichi Iha, 58, former mayor of Ginowan city, which currently hosts Futenma.

They are neck-and-neck in the race, with about 20 percent of voters still undecided whom to vote for, the Yomiuri and Asahi newspapers reported earlier this week.

Whoever wins will have authority to block any offshore runway construction, potentially putting a major obstacle in the way of the base move -- and both are against the plan, preferring to see the base leave the island altogether.

Initially the government pledged to do exactly that, before performing a U-turn under Washington pressure.

Both candidates are independents, but have the backing of opposing parties. Kan's ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) prefers Nakaima as he is seen as more flexible, but the premier has officially refrained from commenting on the election to avoid further anger among residents.

Arguments over the relocation of the Marine Corps base on Okinawa island began after the DPJ came to power a year ago, ending half a century of nearly unbroken conservative rule.

As the DPJ's first premier, Yukio Hatoyama pledged to scrap a 2006 bilateral pact to relocate the base to coastal Henoko, still on Okinawa, and instead promised to move it off the island, and even outside the country altogether.

But in the following months Hatoyama flip-flopped as Washington ramped up pressure for the base to stay put.

The hapless Hatoyama eventually backtracked on his pledge in May and stepped down in June, having managed to offend both Okinawans and the United States.

Japan and the US reaffirmed they would move the base to Henoko as originally agreed, despite local opposition and concerns the offshore runways would spoil a fragile marine ecosystem.

Under the deal 8,000 US Marines are set to be moved to the American territory of Guam to ease the burden on Okinawa, which has hosted Japan's largest concentration of US troops since the end of World War II.

But a recent poll by Kyodo News showed that 62.1 percent of Okinawa voters are against moving the base to Henoko, while 24.3 percent said they accept it.

Whatever the election result, it is unlikely to ease Kan's political plight.

He has seen his approval ratings tumble over his handling of the territorial rows with China and Russia, with critics seeing both as having exploited Tokyo's strained ties with Washington over the base issue.

The prime minister has repeatedly promised to respect the base agreement with Washington, and said this month that the US presence in Asia was vital, welcoming its support in the diplomatic rows, which centre on disputed islands.

China's newly assertive posture on territorial issues this year has been a cause for concern in Asia, where Washington is seen as an important counterbalance.



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