As Ukraine prepares for its own offensive in the coming months, Russian President Vladimir Putin still likely aims to prolong the conflict until Western support for Kyiv wanes, said Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines.
"Putin probably has scaled back his immediate ambitions to consolidating control of the occupied territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, and ensuring that Ukraine will never become a NATO ally," Haines told a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
But she said that whatever the outcome of Ukraine's offensive -- whether it recaptures much of the occupied south and east or the current stalemate remains -- Putin is unlikely to offer any concessions to advance peace talks.
"The challenge is that even as Putin may be scaling back his near-term ambitions, the prospect for Russian concessions to advance negotiations this year will be low unless domestic political vulnerabilities alter his thinking," Haines said.
While Western allies bolster Kyiv with arms, ammunition and training in advance of its planned offensive, Haines noted that Russian forces have "significant" shortfalls in ammunition and personnel.
"Even if Ukraine's counter-offensive is not fully successful, the Russians are unlikely to be able to mount a significant offensive operation this year," Haines said.
To sustain even a modest offensive campaign, Putin would have to order a mandatory mobilization of army recruits as well as secure significant ammunition supplies from other countries, beyond what it gets from Iran, she said.
Still, she added: "We continue to assess that Putin most likely calculates that time works in his favor and that prolonging the war may be his best remaining pathway to eventually securing Russia's strategic interests in Ukraine."
Haines said Moscow's losses are such that its military requires "years of rebuilding."
With a weakened conventional military force, Moscow will become more reliant on nuclear, cyber and space capabilities for deterrence, she said.
Haines added it was "very unlikely" that Moscow would use nuclear weapons in the conflict.
Ukraine 'realistic' about not joining NATO during war: Zelensky
The Hague (AFP) May 4, 2023 -
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday that Ukraine was "realistic" that it would not be able to join NATO while still fighting Russia.
"We are realistic, we know we will not be in NATO during the war," Zelensky said after meeting Dutch and Belgian Prime Ministers Mark Rutte and Alexander De Croo.
"But we want a very clear message that we will be in NATO after the war," Zelensky added.
Zelensky made a surprise visit to the Netherlands a day after meeting Nordic leaders in Finland to drum up support ahead of Ukraine's awaited counter-offensive against Russia.
"The most important thing is to deliver as quickly as possible what was promised to our soldiers," Zelensky told reporters.
"We hope that the Netherlands and our other partners will help as quickly as possible," Zelensky said.
The Netherlands has so far given or pledged 1.2 billion euros in military support to Ukraine.
This included 45 T-72 tanks, armoured personnel carriers and at least 100 Leopard 1 tanks, together with Denmark and Germany, as well as 14 Leopard 2 tanks together with Denmark.
It also included eight howitzers and 120 mm shells as well as two Patriot missile systems, 100 mobile air defence cannons and Stinger missiles among other weapons, the Dutch defence ministry said on its website.
Dutch instructors are also helping to train Ukrainian recruits along with other Western nations.
Zelensky was to visit a Dutch military base later on Thursday in central Netherlands to view equipment reserved for Ukraine.
Earlier in the day he visited the International Criminal Court, where he insisted on creating a special tribunal for Ukraine, rather than a so-called "hybrid court."
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