The Paris-based IEA presented different scenarios for the future of energy in its annual World Energy Outlook (WEO)-- the first since coming under fire from the government of US President Donald Trump over its oil forecasts.
"The pace varies, but renewables grow faster than any other major energy source in all scenarios, led by solar photovoltaics," the agency, which advises mostly developed nations, said in its 518-page report.
In one scenario, "policy changes mean that the United States has 30 percent less renewables capacity installed in 2035 than in last year's Outlook, but at the global level renewables continue their rapid expansion".
In every scenario, China remains the largest market for renewable energy, accounting for 45 to 60 percent of global deployment over the next decade.
Data centres, artificial intelligence and air conditioning are fuelling rising demand for electricity, the IEA said.
The WEO comes as world leaders meet at the UN's COP30 climate conference in Belem, Brazil, which the US government has shunned.
The IEA had to walk a fine line when drafting its latest outlook as it has faced Trump administration criticism for projecting dwindling demand for fossil fuels.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright threatened in July to pull out of the IEA if it did not reform how it operates.
Trump, who has already pulled out of the Paris climate accord, wants to expand oil and gas production and roll back the clean energy policies of his predecessor, Joe Biden.
- 'Politically motivated' -
The IEA used three scenarios for the WEO: one takes into account policies that are currently in place, another looks at "stated" government policies including measures that have yet to be adopted, and a third considers a world that reaches net zero emissions by 2050.
Under the Current Policies Scenario (CPS), oil and natural gas demand would increase by 16 percent to 2035 and rise further through to 2050.
The IEA had dropped such scenarios from its reports in 2020.
"That (CPS) scenario is entirely politically motivated," Rachel Cleetus, senior policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists, told reporters at COP30 in Belem.
"The Trump administration, unfortunately, has been setting bad policy in the United States and trying to undermine policy around the world."
Asked if the Trump administration pressured the IEA to restore the CPS, its executive director Fatih Birol told a press conference that the agency received "suggestions, critiques and pushes from everywhere -- not only from one government, from many governments, stakeholders, every day on a daily basis".
Birol said the IEA decided to add multiple scenarios to its outlook to address political and economic "uncertainties" as well as "differing views" over the future of energy.
In the IEA's Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), oil demand would peak "around 2030" and decline to 100 million barrels per day by 2035 before falling in subsequent years.
Contrary to last year's outlook, gas demand is now expected to continue to grow into the 2030s, due mainly to US policy changes and lower prices.
Under every scenario, however, the IEA said the world would exceed 1.5C of warming above pre-industrial levels -- the most ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
"There is less momentum than before behind national and international efforts to reduce emissions, yet climate risks are rising," the report said.
Under the CPS, warming would exceed 2C around 2050 and 2.9C in 2100 -- and then keep rising.
In STEPS, warming would exceed 2C by around 2060 and 2.5C by 2100.
But in the net-zero scenario, it would peak at about 1.65C around 2050 and decline slowly after that, before dropping back below 1.5C by 2100, according to the IEA.
The IEA has "confirmed that no single country can stop the energy transition, with oil and coal demand to peak by 2030 in its business-as-usual scenario", said David Tong, global industry campaign manager at Oil Change International, a non-profit advocacy group.
"But this year's report also shows Donald Trump's dystopian future, bringing back the old, fossil-fuel intense, high pollution Current Policies Scenario," he said.
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