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OIL AND GAS
Report: Post-sanctions Iran still tricky
by Daniel J. Graeber
Bath, England (UPI) Sep 21, 2015


France opens Iran business office facing 'fierce competition'
Tehran (AFP) Sept 21, 2015 - France opened a business development office in Tehran on Monday seeking to renew once-strong economic ties with Iran after the July 14 nuclear deal in the face of "fierce competition".

French Agriculture Minister Stephane Le Foll and Minister of State for Foreign Trade Matthias Fekl inaugurated the "Business France" office on a visit with some 150 business leaders that is to run until Wednesday.

Le Foll warned that French companies face "fierce competition" from other European and American firms seeking a slice of the Iranian market with its 79 million population.

France's longstanding business ties with Tehran should give it an edge, he said. "What we want is to promote and rely on what already exists, on what must be developed and then also to innovate," the minister said.

In the sanctions era, French companies scaled back their activities but without closing shop in the Islamic republic.

British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond visited Tehran last month following in the footsteps of his Italian, French and German counterparts as European businessmen line up to invest in the Islamic republic's drive to revamp its battered economy.

Fekl said the opening of the "Business France" office in Tehran was "a strong signal of our desire to work in the long-term" with Iran.

French trade with Iran dropped from some 4 billion euros ($4.5 billion) in 2004 to 500 million euros ($565 million) in 2013 as a result of international sanctions imposed on Tehran since 2006 due to its disputed nuclear programme.

But the landmark accord struck in July with six world powers -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States plus Germany -- provides for lifting the sanctions in exchange for Iran not developing nuclear weapons.

Western investors looking to capitalize on easing sanctions pressure on Iran's energy sector should exercise a degree of caution, analysis finds.

Iran's economy emerged from recession in December. Finance Minister Ali Tayebnia said the momentum should continue into 2015 as sanctions pressures ease in response to a July nuclear agreement reached with the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany.

Sanctions imposed on Iran's energy sector curb the country's ability to generate revenue from oil and gas sales. The Central Bank of Iran, however, said a nine-month growth rate of 3.6 percent represents an increase of $54 billion for the nation's economy.

With more of its oil expected back in the global market, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said he was cautious nonetheless about a petroleum-dependent economy.

A report published Monday from analysis firm Verisk Maplecroft said the conservative Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps holds a de facto majority control over the economy. That could throttle some post-sanctions investment opportunities.

"The lifting of oil and financial sanctions does not necessarily provide a panacea for Iran's economy as Rouhani's efforts to provide more business-friendly economy will be challenged by the country's hardliners," Prashant Sawant, senior economist for the firm, said in a statement. "Under these circumstances, Western investors will maintain a cautious optimism about future investments in Iran."

Iran is vetting interest from European energy companies examining the post-sanctions options in the country. European sanctions are easing in the wake of a breakthrough July nuclear agreement.

U.S. supermajor Chevron said U.S. sanctions prohibit the company from following its European counterparts into Iran.

Sawant said that even if energy sanctions ease some companies may still face difficult as military entities tied to the IRGC will remain blacklisted, adding a layer of complexity for companies looking to move into the Iranian market.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly newsletter Iran is expected to start up dozens of oil and gas projects, worth an estimated $185 billion, by the end of the year.


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