Subscribe free to our newsletters via your
. Solar Energy News .




CLIMATE SCIENCE
Study links urbanization and future heat-related mortality
by Staff Writers
Tempe AZ (SPX) Jun 02, 2014


File image.

Phoenix stands at a parched crossroads. Global scale climate change is forecast to bring hotter summers and more extreme heat to the Valley, but regional urbanization also will impact temperatures experienced by residents.

So how should Phoenix grow knowing that such growth could cause temperatures to increase in the future and bring added health risks? Should the city deploy mitigating technologies to help fight summer's heat? Would adopting a low-growth strategy reduce the adverse health consequences of hot weather?

New Arizona State University research examines the heat-health aspects resulting from urbanization and the challenge of sustainable future growth in Maricopa County.

A study released this week shows how urban development could be a factor in the number of lives lost due to heat in future summers. The study is described in the article, "Challenges associated with projecting urbanization-induced heat-related mortality" published in the current online issue of the journal Science of the Total Environment.

"Extreme heat is the leading weather-related killer in the United States," said David Hondula, a postdoctoral scholar in health informatics in ASU's Center for Policy Informatics and lead author of the study.

"In Maricopa County, we see more than 100 premature deaths and hundreds of excess emergency department visits as a result of high temperatures each summer. Understanding how different urban development strategies will impact the health risks associated with heat can help long-term planners and public officials make more informed decisions that lead to sustainable and healthy cities."

In the research, the team tried to quantify the number of excess deaths attributed to heat in Maricopa County based on three future urbanization and adaptation scenarios and multiple exposure variables. Two scenarios (low and high growth projections) represent the maximum possible uncertainty range associated with urbanization in central Arizona; a third represents an adaptation strategy by simulating the deployment of white roof technology to the area.

The researchers - in addition to Hondula included Matei Georgescu and Robert C. Balling Jr., both of ASU's School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning - related temperature to mortality using historical data from 1983 to 2007.

Regional climate model simulations based on 2050-projected urbanization scenarios for Maricopa County generated distributions of temperature change, and from these changes in future excess heat-related mortality was estimated. They studied Maricopa County because it is a fast growing metropolitan area situated in a semi-arid region that experiences "chronic" heat during the summer months.

Overall, projections of heat related mortality ranged from a decrease of 46 deaths per year (-95 percent) to an increase of 339 deaths per year (+359 percent).

Projections based on minimum temperature showed the greatest increase for all expansion and adaptation scenarios and were substantially higher than those for daily mean temperature. Projections based on maximum temperature were largely associated with declining mortality. Low growth and adaptation scenarios led to the smallest increase in predicted heat related mortality based on mean temperature projections.

Because of the environment in which it is built, increases in overnight minimum temperatures in Maricopa County associated with urbanization were found to be of much greater concern for health impacts compared to increases in daytime maximum temperatures. The same would be true in many other cities located in semi-arid regions.

"Future urbanization will lead to slightly lower summer daytime maximum temperatures in the urban core of Maricopa County compared to the surrounding natural landscape, because of the high heat retaining capacity of the built environment," Matei Georgescu said.

"Continued growth would enhance this effect in the future leading to further declines in daytime highs and associated declines in health risks. The tradeoff is that nighttime temperatures increase significantly with urbanization, and this nighttime warming is much greater than the expected daytime cooling."

Hondula added that what this means for planners is that because heat impacts vary from day to night, projections of heat related health outcomes that do not consider place-based, time varying urban heat island effects are "neglecting essential elements for policy relevant decision-making."

"The manner in which the Sun Corridor develops over the next several decades will impact the regional climate and, if no new adaptation measures are introduced, change the health risks for Maricopa County residents associated with extreme heat," Hondula said.

"The greatest health concern comes from large expected increases in nighttime temperatures which could be mitigated by lower-growth scenarios."

"The next step is to look more closely at the conditions people experience on hot days, to ultimately determine if high maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures, or some combination of the two is the real culprit leading to adverse health events," he added.

.


Related Links
Arizona State University
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle








CLIMATE SCIENCE
Major cities must unite against climate change: Paris mayor
United Nations, United States (AFP) May 30, 2014
Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo urged the world's major cities Thursday to unite in the fight against climate change. Stressing that half the world's population is now urbanized, she noted that cities are already responsible for 80 percent of greenhouse gas emissions and the consumption of three quarters of Earth's energy resources. "Major cities must unite to develop industrial bids to tackle ... read more


CLIMATE SCIENCE
Researchers create microbes for direct conversion of biomass to fuel

Microalgae Capable Of Assimilating The Ammonium From Agri-Food Waste

Green and yellow - straw from oilseed as a new source of biofuels

EU study assesses turning CO2 into methanol for use in transport

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Velociraptor robot almost as fast as robotic rival Cheetah

Ultra-fast, the bionic arm can catch objects on the fly

UN talks take aim at 'killer robots'

Exoskeleton to remote-control robot

CLIMATE SCIENCE
New York coast could be site of new wind farms, U.S. government says

A new concept to improve power production performance of wind turbines in a wind farm

Scottish energy sector gets a bit greener with RWE Innogy project

German energy company RWE Innogy starts turbine installation at mega wind project

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Google revs up driverless car, axes steering wheel

Uber taxi app seeks capital at $12 bn value: report

Three-wheel Segway now available

Business-as-usual model for heavy-duty vehicles in Europe unsustainable

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Physicist builds useful light source from harmonic generation

Obama wants to force coal plants to reduce emissions: NYTimes

In climate change fight, Obama gets tough on coal

Trojan Showcases Smart Carbon Line of Advanced Lead Acid Batteries

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Nuclear waste dump on Aboriginal land invalid, court told

Highly radioactive substance found in Swiss dump: report

French police raid Areva over UraMin purchase

Japan to replace anti-nuclear voices on industry watchdog

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Global warming: Breakthrough material absorbs CO2 from gas

Renewable Energy Target Not The Power Price Villain

Obama plans power plant rules in bold climate push

Ukraine: The Real Energy Crisis Starts in June

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Half of world's forest species at risk: UN

Koala shows it's cool to be a tree hugger

Six Philippine forest workers kidnapped: military

Philippine rebels free kidnapped forest workers




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement All images and articles appearing on Space Media Network have been edited or digitally altered in some way. Any requests to remove copyright material will be acted upon in a timely and appropriate manner. Any attempt to extort money from Space Media Network will be ignored and reported to Australian Law Enforcement Agencies as a potential case of financial fraud involving the use of a telephonic carriage device or postal service.