Conducted by a team of researchers from Johns Hopkins University, the study highlights the risks of misrepresenting scientific data, particularly during periods of heightened international scrutiny. The findings have been published in the journal Seismica.
"There was a concerted misinformation and disinformation campaign around this event that promoted the idea this was a nuclear test, which is not something you often see happen with an earthquake," stated Benjamin Fernando, a leading seismologist at Johns Hopkins. "This shows how geophysical data played an important role in a geopolitical crisis."
The earthquake struck on October 5, 2024, approximately 50 kilometers (31 miles) southwest of Semnan in northern Iran, about 216 kilometers (134 miles) east of Tehran. Iran is seismically active due to its position at the convergence of the Arabian and Eurasian tectonic plates.
Fernando's research team analyzed seismic signals from the event and confirmed that it was a natural earthquake. Using publicly available seismic data, the researchers determined that the quake resulted from activity along a gently sloping fault, where Earth's crust deforms due to tectonic plate movements. The study ruled out any unusual origin or link to nuclear activity.
"Seismic waves carry information about the earthquake that produced them as they propagate around the planet. By recording the waves at different points on the Earth's surface, we can work out what the properties of the source that produced them were," Fernando explained. "In this case, the source was what we call a reverse fault-a motion associated with the Earth's crust being compressed as the Arabian and Eurasian plates collide. Nuclear tests have very different signatures, which are explosive."
Historical seismic records further corroborated these findings. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), which monitors global nuclear tests, noted that similar earthquakes had occurred in the same region in 2015 and 2018, with no nuclear link.
Despite the scientific evidence, claims of a nuclear test began circulating just 17 minutes after the earthquake. Initial social media posts misinterpreted seismic data, fueling a cycle of misinformation and likely intentional disinformation, according to the study.
The first claim of a nuclear test surfaced on Twitter/X 27 minutes after the quake, followed by a rapid escalation of misinformation. Some users mistakenly referenced seismic data from an unrelated earthquake in Armenia earlier that day to support their assertions.
Conspiracy theories then linked the Iranian earthquake to a supposed seismic event in Israel later that evening. While the study could not conclusively prove deliberate disinformation efforts, researchers noted the sustained engagement and the advanced use of seismology data suggested involvement by actors with expertise in the field. A widely shared post promoting the nuclear test theory was traced to an account linked to Russian-backed disinformation campaigns.
The false narrative soon extended beyond social media into mainstream news coverage. English-language media in India were the most active in amplifying the nuclear test allegations, often referencing one another's reports and citing incorrect seismic data. Misinformation also spread through media in the United States, Israel, Pakistan, Zimbabwe, France, and the United Kingdom.
Conversely, Persian-language media outlets largely reported the earthquake accurately as a natural event. These reports, relying more on local expert analysis and official seismic data, provided a clearer understanding of the situation than many English-language sources.
To prevent future misinformation, the researchers advocate for enhanced rapid-response collaborations among seismologists to correct misinterpretations of seismic data more effectively.
"Scientific agencies could issue detailed reports swiftly to counter misinformation," suggested co-author Saman Karimi, a Johns Hopkins geophysicist. "Amplifying verified scientific content could help reduce misleading narratives. This could be achieved through partnerships between social media platforms and trusted seismologists or agencies such as the U.S. Geological Survey."
Research Report:The propagation of seismic waves, misinformation, and disinformation from the 2024-10-05 M 4.5 Iran earthquake
Related Links
Johns Hopkins University
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com
Learn about missile defense at SpaceWar.com
All about missiles at SpaceWar.com
Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com
| Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters |
| Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters |
