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NUKEWARS
The IAEA: the world's eyes and ears in Iran
By Simon STURDEE
Vienna (AFP) July 15, 2015


Clinton: Iran will never get nuclear weapon if I'm president
Washington (AFP) July 15, 2015 - Democratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton vowed Tuesday that Iran will never be able to acquire atomic weapons if she is elected to the White House.

Clinton's tough words came as critics in the US Congress, as well as skeptical US allies around the globe, criticized an agreement with Tehran as providing a glide path -- albeit a somewhat delayed one -- toward an eventual nuclear weapon.

"As president, I would use every tool in our arsenal to compel rigorous Iranian compliance," Clinton said in a statement.

"The message to Iran should be loud and clear: We will never allow you to acquire a nuclear weapon; not just during the term of this agreement -- never."

A former US secretary of state, Clinton said she is "still studying the details" of the plan, but gave it her qualified backing.

"Based on the briefings I received and a review of the documents, I support the agreement because it can help us prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon," the ex-first lady said.

"With vigorous enforcement, unyielding verification and swift consequences for any violations, this agreement can make the United States, Israel and our Arab partners safer."

The deal, hammered out between six world powers and Iran, was finalized in Vienna after marathon talks.

Clinton said, however, that inking the accord is just a first step, and that "effective enforcement" of the deal will be of paramount importance.

"In light of the international community's long history and experience with Iranian behavior, the highest priority must be given to effective enforcement of the agreement," she said.

"Signing is just the beginning. As president, I would use every tool in our arsenal to compel rigorous Iranian compliance."

Israel in particular, has been vocal about its displeasure over the Iran deal, which seeks to ensure that Tehran cannot create a nuclear bomb in return for lifting biting sanctions that have crippled the Islamic republic's economy.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu -- who has clashed publicly and frequently with US President Barack Obama over the content of the deal -- called it a "historic mistake" and signaled he remains ready to order military action against Iran.

Clinton was eager to acknowledge Israeli concerns, saying in her statement, that "even with a nuclear agreement, Iran poses a real challenge to the United States and our partners and a grave threat to our ally Israel."

Obama will hold a press conference on Wednesday to convince Americans, allies and skeptics about the merits of the deal.

Congress has 60 days to review the agreement reached between Tehran and Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States plus Germany (the so-called P5+1) to end a more than 13-year standoff.

Obama has vowed to veto any attempt to block it.

Staff at the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN watchdog set to play a vital role in the new Iran nuclear deal, call this pleasantly cool basement the dungeon.

Inside a display cabinet full of clunky, old equipment sits a little orange toy figure with a tongue-in-cheek sign next to it: "Little Brother". But this is no laughing matter.

Down here lurks some of the high-tech kit, shown to AFP in an exclusive recent visit, that will ensure that Iran sticks to its side of the bargain in the historic accord clinched on Tuesday.

Mounted on a wall are cameras encased in microwave-sized blue metal boxes undergoing testing, able to record images of Iran's nuclear facilities that can then be watched by inspectors.

The cameras are specially made for the IAEA, and the pictures, just like the electronic fibre-optic seals to be put on nuclear equipment, cannot be faked.

Other gadgets, some of them new, fix to pipes in facilities to measure -- online -- the enrichment levels of uranium, while ultrasonic transducers monitor reactors and 3D laser range scanners check for any changes to nuclear sites.

The Vienna-based IAEA will be the "eyes and ears of the international community" in Iran, according to its Japanese Director General Yukiya Amano.

- People power -

The equipment is nothing without the human factor, though.

The IAEA has between four and 10 inspectors in Iran every day as well as its equipment, trying to make sure that Iran is not secretly building a nuclear weapon.

The IAEA will now have an even bigger job, inspecting not only sites where Iran declares nuclear material to be, as per the current arrangement, but elsewhere too.

Controversially, this could include inspecting military bases, in order to investigate allegations of past efforts to develop nuclear weapons -- and to probe any suspected efforts in the future.

With Iran set to reduce the number of uranium centrifuges, which can make nuclear fuel but also the core of a weapon, surplus equipment will be dismantled and placed in IAEA-monitored storage.

It will also have to certify that Iran is reducing its stockpile of low-enriched uranium and monitor the redesigning of the Arak reactor and the removal of the original calandria or reactor core.

But according to Thomas Shea, a former IAEA inspector, the watchdog might also get help from others -- foreign intelligence services or dissidents -- to detect any secret sites.

"If Tehran were to create new clandestine facilities, it might try to hide them in cities, possibly under industrial facilities, hospitals or shopping malls or on military bases," Shea said in a report for the Arms Control Association.

"National intelligence services employ methods, such as spying and intercepting communications, that are beyond IAEA capabilities," he said.

- Big ask -

The IAEA is already unrecognisable from its 1950s beginnings, undergoing a radical overhaul after North Korea and Iraq's secret weapons programmes emerged in the 1990s.

Even to do its job in Iran before the recent deal, it had to bring former inspectors back from retirement, insiders say, and its new role will require many more, plus more money.

Their job is not helped by the fact that some in Iran view the IAEA as being riddled with spies and biased, an impression not dispelled by diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks in 2010.

According to diplomats, Iran only allows in inspectors from certain nations -- no Americans, no Britons, no French, and definitely no Israelis. But Germans, Russians and Chinese are okay.

According to the US official involved in this week's nuclear talks, part of the new accord is that this will change. Any nation with diplomatic relations with Iran -- so not the US -- will be able to send inspectors, he said.

"It is impossible to say how well this is going to succeed," Shea told AFP. "Iran is a big country."


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