Militants fighting under the black flag of the Islamic State group have turned a southern city into a battleground, and triggered warnings by President Rodrigo Duterte of a potential IS caliphate.

The violence is the latest in four decades of conflict across the southern third of the mostly Catholic Philippines, where a Muslim separatist rebellion has claimed more than 120,000 lives.

Here is what we know about the latest violence, the factors behind it and what will happen next:

- Who are the militants? -

They mostly belong to the Maute group, which the government estimates has about 260 armed followers. It is one of a number of hardline groups that split from the nation's biggest Muslim rebel organisation in anger at a planned peace accord.

The Maute gunmen were protecting Isnilon Hapilon, a leader of a kidnapping-for-ransom gang called the Abu Sayyaf that is also believed to have only a few hundred gunmen but is blamed for the nation's worst terrorist attacks.

The Maute and Hapilon's faction of the Abu Sayyaf have pledged allegiance to IS and want to establish a caliphate for it in the southern Philippines, according to Duterte and security analysts.

IS has named Hapilon, 51, its leader in the Philippines, according to security analysts.

- Why did the fighting erupt? -

After receiving intelligence reports that Hapilon was hiding in Marawi city, security forces went to arrest him on Tuesday but were taken by surprise when they met massive resistance from Maute gunmen protecting him.

The gunmen went on a rampage through Marawi, even though most of its 200,000 residents are Muslim, flying black IS flags partly to distract the troops but also to provide powerful propaganda images to highlight their cause.

- What was the response? -

President Rodrigo Duterte ordered a massive assault to kill the militants or drive them out of Marawi. The fighting has claimed the lives of at least 15 security forces and 31 militants, according to the military.

At least two civilians have also been killed, while local media have reported the murders of nine other people apparently caught at a militant checkpoint.

Duterte also imposed martial law across the entire southern region of Mindanao, which is home to 20 million people, to stop what he said was the rising threat of an IS caliphate being established.

- What's the background to the fighting? -

The Philippines' Muslim minority regard Mindanao as their ancestral homeland. Muslims arrived in the Philippines well before the Spanish landed in the 16th Century and imported Catholicism, and Islam was most firmly established in the south.

Heavy Catholic migration in recent decades has made Muslims a minority even in most Mindanao cities.

Muslim rebels launched their separatist rebellion in the 1970s. The two main rebel groups have signed peace accords with the government in exchange for autonomy, although this has yet to be finalised.

The Maute, Abu Sayyaf and other small hardline groups are not interested in negotiating peace and have in recent years looked to IS to help them.

Nevertheless, security analysts regard these groups as lacking the fundamentalist ideology of their IS superiors, and say they are more interested in criminal activities than implementing ultra-strict versions of Sharia law.

- What happens next? -

Both sides could emerge with victories from the fighting and martial law, according to Julkipli Wadi, a professor of Islamic studies at the University of the Philippines.

Wadi said he expected the militants to scatter after suffering casualties but then regroup, winning from the experience a "badge of honour" that could draw IS fighters fleeing the Middle East battlefields.

Meanwhile, Duterte could claim an immediate victory in clearing Marawi, while using martial law and the security threat to muster support for some of his other political objectives that have lost some public support, according to Wadi.

He said these included amending the constitution to change the form of government.

There are few expectations that martial law could end the deep-rooted problems that have led to the Muslim conflict in the south.

But Wadi also said he did not believe the vast majority of local Muslims supported an IS caliphate, nor the group's brutal tactics that include mass beheadings of opponents.

Philippines peace talks with communist rebels break down
Noordwijk Aan Zee, Netherlands (AFP) May 27, 2017 - Peace talks between the Philippine government and communist insurgents broke down on Saturday after a dispute over the rebels' ordering their fighters to step up attacks.

But communist negotiators remained hopeful that the discussions being held at a seaside resort town in the Netherlands would continue, despite the suspension announced by government negotiators.

The two sides had just opened formal talks when chief government negotiator Jesus Dureza objected to the communists' telling guerrillas to intensify attacks in response to President Rodrigo Duterte's declaration of martial law in parts of the country.

"The government panel is now left without any other recourse but to announce... that it will not proceed to participate in the fifth round of peace negotiations," he said.

He added that talks would not resume until there were indications of an "environment conducive to achieving just and sustainable peace".

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte declared martial law over the southern third of the country on Tuesday to quell fighting with pro-Islamic State group militants in a southern city.

Communists insurgents, who are active in wide areas of the archipelago, including the south, responded to his declaration by ordering their forces to "carry out more tactical offensives".

But communist alliance negotiators blamed government officials, saying their statement resulted from government officials announcing that New People's Army fighters would also be targeted in Manila's crackdown on Islamic extremists.

This was despite an assurance by Duterte -- relayed by government negotiator Silvestre Bello -- that the Mindanao martial law was not against the NPA, the NDFP, a coalition of several groups, of which the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) is among the most prominent, said in a statement.

"The facts on the ground belie the clarification made by Bello," it added.

Senior rebel negotiator Luis Jalandoni said that despite the government's ultimatum, the guerrillas' attacks would continue.

Government negotiator Silvestre Bello said the rebel panel had originally asked for a 10-minute recess to discuss the government's threat but refused to return to the table afterwards.

- 'Talks not closed' -

But chief rebel negotiator Fidel Agcaoili told journalists he was hopeful the talks could resume, despite the government's suspension.

"The talks are not closed," Agcaoili said.

"Of course we intend to sit down again, the two panels, and then perhaps find some constructive solution between the two of us to continue the fifth round of talks."

If a solution could be reached, the talks "could resume tomorrow," said Agcaoili, chief negotiator for the NDFP said earlier.

The CPP's armed wing is the 4,000-member NPA guerilla unit.

The communist insurgency in the poverty-stricken Asian country which began in 1968 is one of the longest running in the world. It has claimed an estimated 30,000 lives, according to the military.

Peace talks have been conducted on and off for 30 years, and were revived after Duterte, a self-declared socialist, was elected president last year.

Norway had coaxed the two sides back to the negotiating table in August, but little progress has been made since then.

The talks were moved to Noordwijk aan Zee, about 70 kilometres (45 miles) from Utrecht, where several of the rebel leaders live in exile.

The fiery Duterte has also taken strong positions against the rebels, imposing conditions including that the guerrillas stop extortion and arson activities.

Duterte angrily called off the peace talks in February after the collapse of unilateral ceasefires that saw guerrillas killing several soldiers and police in a series of attacks.

NPA guerrillas continue to attack isolated military and police outposts and extort money from businesses to finance their armed campaign, the military said.

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How a botched raid led to martial law in the Philippines
Marawi, Philippines (AFP) May 25, 2017
It was meant to be a "surgical operation" to capture one of the world's most wanted terrorists, who was hiding and wounded in a southern Philippine city. But it went spectacularly wrong. Three days later Marawi, the centre of Islam in the mainly Catholic Asian nation was swarmed by tanks, attack helicopters and thousands of troops fighting Islamic State-linked fighters holed up in homes and ... read more

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