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CLIMATE SCIENCE
UN talks out of sync with global climate demands
By Marlowe HOOD
Madrid (AFP) Dec 9, 2019

2020 election crucial for US to catch up on climate action
Washington (AFP) Dec 9, 2019 - A significant expansion of state, city, and business climate action could reduce US greenhouse gas emissions by up to 37 percent by 2030 over 2005 levels even without federal support, according to projections published Monday.

But the election of a president who advances a comprehensive national climate strategy could reduce emissions by 49 percent by 2030, around the levels UN experts deem a necessary stepping stone to meet the Paris accord goals needed to prevent runaway planetary warming.

The figures were compiled by America's Pledge, a group founded in 2017 and financed by billionaire Michael Bloomberg, who last month announced he was running to be the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election.

Climate change experts quoted in the report, from the University of Maryland and the Rocky Mountain Institute, estimate the US is presently set to reduce emissions by 25 percent by 2030 if sub-federal climate ambitions remain at their current levels.

The main factors are natural market forces, which are increasingly favoring renewable energies and disfavoring coal, as well as laws in Democratic-led states, notably California and New York.

The best case scenario however would involve the election of a Democratic president and congressional majority that would adopt a set of laws on the energy sector and on vehicles that would put the country on track to meet carbon neutrality by 2050.

Scientists deem that necessary to limit long-term warming at 1.5 or two degrees higher than pre-industrial levels.

"We do have time to catch up with the Paris goal, but we need to move very rapidly," Carl Pope, vice president of America's Pledge told reporters ahead of the report's presentation at the COP25 UN climate conference in Madrid on Monday.

"It does require revolutionary change, but that change is already happening," Pope added. "So we need federal reengagement, we ideally need it in 2021. But we shouldn't stop if we don't get it."

Under the US system of governance, states have the power to legislate against fossil fuel use in local energy production, and set standards for building insulation and heating.

But other important regulations remain under federal purview, including car emissions, aviation, shipping, oil pipelines, hydrocarbon drilling on federal lands, the federal energy sector and regulations for carbon-intensive industries such as cement and steel.

By comparison, the European Union is on track to significantly exceed its target of reducing emissions by 40 percent by 2030 compared to 1990, which is earlier than the reference year chosen by Washington of 2005.

Many European countries have called for the zone to adopt the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.

UN climate negotiations in Madrid remained bogged down Monday in the fine print of the Paris treaty rulebook, out-of-sync with a world demanding action to forestall the ravages of global warming.

The 196-nation talks should kick into high-gear Tuesday with the arrival of ministers, but on the most crucial issue of all -- slashing the greenhouse gas emissions overheating the planet -- major emitters have made it clear they have nothing to say.

Only the European Union is dangling the prospect of enhanced carbon cutting ambitions, to be laid out this week in its European Green New Deal.

The arrival Tuesday of Michael Bloomberg, who has thrown his hat -- and a ton of money -- into the US presidential contest, will underscore how much easier the task might be with a Democrat rather than a climate denier in the White House.

"I'm going to #COP25 in Madrid because President Trump won't," Bloomberg tweeted.

Observers say the case for a global Marshall Plan on global warming has become overwhelming.

A quartet of recent UN science reports catalogued a crescendo of deadly heatwave, flooding and superstorms made more destructive by rising seas, and projected far worse impacts just over the horizon.

Every year that CO2 and methane emissions continue to rise -- as they have for decades -- compresses the task of drawing them down fast enough to avoid catastrophic warming into an impossibly narrow time frame.

A youth-led movement, meanwhile, led by Swedish teenager Greta Thunberg -- a magnet for climate hope and fear -- has seen millions of protesters spill into the streets, with tens of thousands in Madrid on Friday.

Even forward-looking businesses and corporations are pushing for a rapid and well-ordered transition to a low-carbon world.

- Fossil fuel taboo -

On Monday 631 institutional investors managing $37 trillion -- a third of the world's monetary assets -- called for a price on carbon and end to fossil fuel subsidies.

But governments are waiting until next year's deadline to unveil revised emissions reduction commitments.

"Negotiations, by their nature, are 'I'll give you this, if you give me that'," said Andrew Steer, President and CEO of the World Resources Institute, a Washington-based climate policy think tank.

"So we are standing and watching our house on fire. I've got a hose, you've got a hose, but I'm not going to turn mine on until you do."

At the same time, the rising tide of urgency has clearly permeated the "climate bubble" of diplomats, policy wonks, NGOs and business leaders that gather in a new city each year.

"Delegates are finally saying the 'F' words -- Fossil Fuels," said Catherine Abreu, Executive Director of Climate Action Network Canada, an umbrella organisation of activists.

For 25 years, she noted, it has been more-or-less taboo to point an accusing finger within the UN negotiations directly at the cause of global warming -- the burning of fossil fuels.

It is no coincidence that the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement -- which calls for capping the rise in temperatures to "well below" two degrees Celsius -- does not mention "fossil fuel", "oil", "coal" or "natural gas".

- Climate-addled world -

Last month, however, a United Nations report showed for the first time that fossil fuel production planned or in the pipeline will overwhelm efforts to hold warming to levels consistent with a liveable planet.

Negotiators are addressing a trio of politically-charged technical issues before the Paris Agreement becomes operational at the end of next year.

One is reworking rules for largely disfunctional carbon markets.

Another is so-called "loss and damage".

Under the bedrock UN climate treaty, rich nations agreed to shoulder more responsibility for curbing global warming, and to help developing countries prepare for unavoidable future impacts -- the twin pillars of "mitigation" and "adaptation".

But there was no provision for helping countries already reeling in a climate-addled world, such as Mozambique -- recently hit by devastating cyclones -- and small island states disappearing under the waves.

"There must be a path forward that ensures vulnerable countries will see finance and capacity-building support substantially scaled-up to address the loss and damage they are already experiencing," said Alden Meyer, director of strategy and policy at the Union of Concerned Scientists.

Even fixing a timetable for periodic reviews of carbon cutting pledges has proven too contentious for frontline climate negotiators to resolve.


Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


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CLIMATE SCIENCE
2010s hottest decade in history, UN says as emissions rise again
Madrid (AFP) Dec 3, 2019
This decade is set to be the hottest in history, the United Nations said Tuesday in an annual assessment outlining the ways in which climate change is outpacing humanity's ability to adapt to it. The World Meterological Organization said global temperatures so far this year were 1.1 degrees Celsius (two degrees Farenheit) above the pre-industrial average between 1850-1900. That puts 2019 on course to be in the top three warmest years ever recorded, and possibly the hottest non-El Nino year yet. ... read more

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