What has long been a flashpoint issue in Israel's fractious politics could break up his right-wing coalition government and send the divided country to new elections.
Most Jewish men and women in Israel must serve in the military, but since 1948 the insular ultra-Orthodox community has been granted draft exemptions so some students can continue yeshiva study.
Over the years, the ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, community has ballooned, and with it the number of exemptions.
The Israeli High Court in a landmark decision this week ordered the government to begin drafting ultra-Orthodox men at a time the military is fighting Hamas in Gaza and as the threat of war looms against Lebanon's Hezbollah.
Several prominent ultra-Orthodox rabbis publicly dug in their heels after the ruling, with one declaring enlistment "a religious transgression" and that "it's like they're forcing us to profane the Shabbat", the Jewish day of rest.
The court ruling was the latest twist in a decades-long dispute at the heart of Israeli politics -- one that set off a political crisis in 2018 that saw Israel go to the polls five times in the four succeeding years.
Haredim, who observe a strict interpretation of Jewish law and live in insular communities, say their Torah study does as much to protect the country as military service.
"Up until now, there's always been some legal basis not to call them into the army," said Shuki Friedman, vice president of the Jewish People Policy Institute.
Now, however, he said, Haredim "have no exception and no legal basis not to do it".
A growing chorus of Israelis has called for ultra-Orthodox men to bear an "equal share of the burden" of military service, but it remains unclear how the court's decision will impact Haredi enlistment in practice.
- Economic penalties -
Around 66,000 ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are currently eligible for army enlistment, said Friedman.
Some ultra-Orthodox men already serve in the army.
An Israeli military human resources officer told lawmakers in February that the number of ultra-Orthodox men enlisting annually has held steady at around 1,200 since 2019, down from around 3,000 in 2017.
The court's decision doesn't mean everyone eligible will get a draft order this week. Any push by Israeli authorities to enlist Haredi men into the military would only occur in months to come.
"The question is the pace: whether it be 3,000 now and 6,000 next year, or (if they) will keep the very slow pace we witness now," Friedman said.
Yeshivas whose students dodge the draft now face major government budget cuts, in some cases as much as a third of their annual budgets, said Barak Medina, a law professor at Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
Yeshivas get subsidies based on students enrolled, and will be penalised for each one that doesn't enlist.
Those economic penalties may put pressure on ultra-Orthodox institutions to comply.
"I am fairly sure that Haredi society will organise people who want to enlist and can enlist," said Nechumi Yaffe, a professor of public policy at Tel Aviv University specialising in the ultra-Orthodox community.
"It will change Haredi society."
Earlier this month, Netanyahu's Likud party revived a bill that aims to legislate Haredi enlistment targets and legalise exemptions for yeshiva students.
But opponents to the legislation -- including a handful of Likud lawmakers -- say the bill is toothless, gives de facto exemptions to around 90 percent of Haredi men in each cohort, and does not meet the military's increased manpower needs during wartime.
- 'Buy more time' -
Medina said there doesn't appear to be enough support within Netanyahu's governing coalition to pass the bill.
That won't stop the prime minister who will lean on his allies to throw their weight behind it, he said.
"It is either you support this sweeping legislation that provides exemption to all the students, or we are going to early elections."
Netanyahu's ruling coalition holds 64 seats in the 120-member parliament. His majority depends on two Haredi political parties that together control 18 votes.
If they bolt, it could send Israel to new elections at a time the nation, traumatised by the October 7 attack, is deeply divided over Netanyahu's government, the conduct of the war and efforts to bring home the hostages Hamas is holding.
Friedman believes Netanyahu will likely try to stall until the Knesset, Israel's parliament, takes summer recess on July 28.
"He's trying to postpone the collapse of the government, buy more time," and in the meanwhile shore up his coalition, Friedman said.
Yaffe, at Tel Aviv University, said a public opinion survey she conducted this week among Haredim indicated "great anger" toward their parties' politicians, and growing disillusionment with the current "full-on right wing" government's ability to serve the community's interests.
That doesn't necessarily translate to an appetite for new elections.
"It's a question of interests," Yaffe said. "Would a different government give them more?"
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