"Our results suggest that under compound LSLW extremes, renewable energy generation could be significantly compromised," explained Dr. Yue Qin. "Even more concerning, climate change could intensify the frequency of such events, escalating threats to China's renewable energy supply and potentially hindering progress toward carbon neutrality."
China's ambitious target of carbon neutrality by 2060 hinges on expanding solar and wind energy, yet these renewable sources are inherently variable and sensitive to weather patterns. While extensive studies exist on individual renewable energy challenges, this study uniquely addresses the compounded effects of simultaneous low solar and wind energy availability, a critical but understudied issue.
The findings underscore a significant topographic influence on the occurrence of LSLW extremes, with a national average of 16.4 days annually. Particularly in eastern China, these events reduce renewable energy output by approximately 80% compared to typical conditions. Projections under various climate scenarios indicate a nationwide rise in the frequency of such events, with areas like the Tibetan Plateau and northwestern China predicted to experience substantial increases.
"In particular, a striking increase of compound LSLW extremes' frequency occurs under SSP370 scenario with aerosol emissions increase due to the assumption of a lenient air quality policy," said Licheng Wang, the study's lead author. The study found that elevated aerosol levels play a major role by weakening wind speeds and reducing solar radiation.
The researchers also evaluated inter-grid electricity transmission as an adaptation strategy. Results show this approach could mitigate over 91% of the frequency and 59%-85% of the intensity of LSLW-induced energy failures. Xizang (Tibet) emerged as a key region for reducing LSLW-related renewable energy shortages across China. However, infrastructure constraints, including geographical and economic challenges, limit the development of high-voltage electricity transmission in this region. Enhancing renewable energy projects in Xizang could be vital for achieving China's carbon neutrality goals.
Dr. Yue Qin emphasized the importance of informed planning: "By revealing the geospatial and temporal evolution of compound LSLW extremes and their underlying physical mechanisms under climate change, our study emphasizes that these events are not random but predictable. This underscores the importance of proactive preparation and mitigation to address this pressing challenge."
Research Report:Unraveling climate change-induced compound low-solar-low-wind extremes in China
Related Links
College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University
All About Solar Energy at SolarDaily.com
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