Here is what is at stake:
- The end goal -
The 27-nation European Union has pledged to be carbon neutral by 2050, and has set a first interim target for 2030: to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent compared with 1990 levels.
For the next milestone, 2040, working documents suggest the EU will aim for a net drop of 90 percent -- maintaining roughly the same pace of cuts it has pledged over the 2020-2030 period.
The next European Commission, to be appointed after the June elections, will be tasked with turning this week's recommendation into legislation for member states and EU lawmakers to consider ahead of next year's COP30 climate conference.
- A second Green Deal? -
Neil Makaroff, of the Strategic Perspectives think tank, believes the commission's focus on energy sovereignty and competitiveness "sets the right tone".
And he sees a chance for Europe to ramp up investment in clean technologies and fend off competition from the United States and China.
"This could be the cornerstone of the next mandate," he said.
Will the EU need a second Green Deal, the sweeping set of policies it agreed in 2020 with the aim of meeting its climate targets?
Pascal Canfin, chair of the European Parliament's environment committee, doubts it.
From now until 2030, "the job is done," with a "massive transformation" of society already underway, argued Canfin.
The transport sector aside, many of the Green Deal's laws -- on carbon trading or renewables -- set 2030 as a target, and will need updating.
"But it won't be radically new," said Canfin. "The acceleration is happening now. After that it will be about keeping things moving."
- Out of fossil fuels? -
In an impact report seen by AFP, the commission foresees a 70 to 80 percent fall in the amount of fossil fuels burned for energy production by 2040. In terms of exiting fossil fuels altogether, only coal was concerned.
The report factors in nuclear energy as an element of the transition.
Eight NGOs including WWF and Greenpeace have urged the EU to "set clear fossil fuel phase-out dates" -- calling for an exit from fossil gas by 2035 and oil by 2040.
- Green... and competitive -
Adolfo Aiello, of the Eurofer steel federation, is among those concerned about the scale of the task ahead -- and the potential hit to Europe's competitiveness.
"The EU steel industry's decarbonisation alone would require the equivalent of today's German electricity consumption," he warned, calling for guarantees from Brussels on levelling the playing field with parts of the world less committed on climate.
But Makaroff was more optimistic on the competitive advantage of transitioning to clean energy.
"It's a chance to invest massively in decarbonisation, to help new industries emerge, and reap the fruits in terms of job creation," he said.
With elections looming, Elisa Giannelli, of the E3G climate advocacy group, warns however that the EU also needs to strengthen the social dimension of its climate policies.
"Getting this wrong would allow conservative and populist voices to set the direction of the next steps," she said.
- Carbon capture -
In the provisional impact report, achieving a 90-percent net emissions cut relied heavily on carbon capture -- specifically 345 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2040.
This would rely on a mix of technologies -- some relatively untested on a large-scale -- with the carbon captured to be used in manufacturing carbon-neutral synthetic fuels, or sequestered underground.
In parallel with its climate target, the commission was due Tuesday to unveil its strategy for managing carbon -- a notion many advocacy groups dismiss as a mirage.
The Real Zero Europe campaign of 140 NGOs has urged the EU to change tack, away from "speculative" carbon removal technologies which it called "dangerous distractions" and a "smokescreen for continued use of fossil fuels".
But for Pascal Canfin the EU will "need to activate all solutions" at its disposal -- especially for those industries hardest to decarbonise.
- And the cost... -
According to the impact report, the commission estimates total investment needs, in order to meet the bloc's climate targets, at around 1.5 trillion euros ($1.6 trillion) per year between 2031 and 2050.
The Rousseau Institute reached a similar projection in a January report -- a sum that amounts to almost 10 percent of the combined GDP of the bloc's 27 member states.
As part of that effort, it foresaw public investment doubling to 510 billion euros per year, to "mobilise" matching private investment.
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