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Why Brexit is bad for NATO, Europe's defence
By Val�rie LEROUX
Paris (AFP) July 6, 2016


Key points of NATO's Warsaw summit
Brussels (AFP) July 6, 2016 - NATO leaders meet July 8-9 in Warsaw to finalise the biggest alliance revamp since the collapse of the Soviet Union to counter what they see as an aggressive and dangerously unpredictable Russia.

The US-led alliance is putting in place a "Readiness Action Plan" to ensure it is not caught napping the way critics say it was by the conflict in eastern Ukraine and Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea.

Here are key issues to be discussed:

Spending power

NATO leaders took a first, crucial step at their 2014 summit in Wales when they agreed to reverse years of spending cuts and committed to allocate two percent of annual economic output to defence.

Progress since then has been patchy, with only five of the 28 member states meeting the target at a time of austerity.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg says the alliance has now halted the cuts, increasing combined spending last year by 0.6 percent for Canada and the European allies, with a gain of 3.0 percent expected in 2016.

In Warsaw, member states will be given a report card to show just where each stands -- and what more they must do to come up to scratch.

Baltic tripwire

NATO was shocked by the speed and effectiveness of Russia's Ukraine intervention, especially its former Soviet-bloc members who fear they could be left in the lurch in any repeat.

To meet those concerns, NATO leaders will approve sending four battalions -- one each to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland -- to act as a tripwire against any Russian adventurism.

Each battalion will number 600-800 troops, perhaps slightly more, with the deployment to send a signal of NATO resolve to all concerned.

Spearhead Force

The forward battalions are backed up by a "Spearhead Force" -- officially the "Very High Readiness Joint Task Force" -- which numbers about 5,000 troops ready to move within a couple of days.

NATO has established forward command centres along its eastern flank so that these Spearhead troops can hit the ground running, picking up pre-positioned heavy equipment to cut deployment times in a crisis.

The alliance has also tripled the size of the NATO Response Force to some 40,000 troops which would follow the Spearhead unit -- but many are concerned their deployment would take weeks if not months.

Readiness exercises

NATO has mounted a series of exercises, especially in the eastern member states, to test readiness levels and reassure nervous allies.

It has also deployed extra aircraft to boost air policing, especially over the Baltics where they frequently encounter Russia planes in a dangerous game of cat and mouse.

More ships also help keep a closer eye on Moscow.

Cyberdefence

The Ukraine crisis highlighted the danger posed by "hybrid warfare," a combination of conventional weaponry and information technology to destabilise an opponent without a formal declaration of hostilities.

NATO leaders agreed in Wales that a cyber attack against a member state could be considered the equivalent of a military attack, triggering its "one for all, all for one" Article 5 collective defence response.

Now they are going further, formally designating cyber defence as a NATO operational area which will require resources and planning.

Eyes south

The NATO upgrade revamp has largely been driven by the Ukraine crisis but alliance leaders are increasingly worried by war and upheaval in the Middle East and across North Africa.

Deadly terrorist attacks, most recently in Paris and Brussels claimed by Islamic State jihadis, have brought the message home that instability to the south is also a threat.

Accordingly, NATO aims to "project stability" by providing advice and assistance in the region to head off future problems while boosting cooperation with the European Union.

Britain's shock vote to leave the EU is bad news for NATO and for Europe's defence cooperation in general, experts said ahead of this week's NATO summit.

"It's bad news for everyone," said Camille Grand, director of the Fondation pour la recherche strategique (RFS, or Strategic Research Foundation) in Paris.

"In NATO, the British will have less influence because the US will no longer necessarily rely on them," as Washington has long seen London as a useful lever to exert US influence within the EU, he added.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg of Norway said he was "certain" that Britain would remain a key force in the alliance despite its June 23 Brexit vote to leave the 28-nation European Union.

One of his NATO predecessors, Dutchman Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, warned that the British vote "will negatively affect the close relationship between the EU and NATO which the UK had been a key part of."

Brexit also risks plunging Britain back into recession, threatening to cut its $60 billion defence budget, already hit by austerity cuts in recent years.

- Kremlin 'buoyed' by Brexit -

In the immediate term, the vacuum left by Brexit threatens above all to play into the hands of Russia, which sees any weakening of Europe as boosting its strategic interests.

"News of the referendum undoubtedly buoyed spirits in the Kremlin today, where leaders will view it as confirmation that Europe is weak and disunited," said Christopher Chivvis of the non-profit RAND Corporation.

He added: "This could encourage a more aggressive Russian stance against NATO in the future."

"But if Brexit is a near-term problem for NATO, it is a much bigger blow to the EU's long-struggling effort to build up its own security and defence capability," he added.

The EU's Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) will wither as a result of losing one of the continent's main military powers, experts said.

The United Kingdom and France are the only two European nations with substantial military assets including nuclear weapons and able and willing to intervene in external conflicts.

Britain heads up Europe's anti-piracy Operation Atalante off the Horn of Africa, helps hunt migrant smugglers in the Mediterranean and contributes to EU's Battlegroup rapid-reaction force.

- Europe divided -

"The most serious thing about Brexit, is that Europe will be divided and will therefore be unable to focus on strategic issues," said Grand.

Britain's negotiations to leave the EU will likely take years, even if the bloc's leaders would like it to go faster.

"It is likely that those who want to push Britain out the door as quickly as possible will clash with those who want to accommodate their wishes," said Pierre Razoux of the Institut de Recherche Strategique de l'Ecole militaire (IRSEM) in Paris.

The challenge is all the greater because Europe is facing the biggest threat since the end of the Cold War on its eastern flank, where Moscow is showing new appetites, and on its southern flank with growing pressure from migrants and jihadists.

The departure from the EU of Britain, fiercely opposed to military integration within the EU, could in theory boost European defence coordination long sought by EU heavyweights France and Germany.

- Major military power lost -

But creating a European military command and finding more money for EU operations, both blocked by London, will represent a "marginal" gain compared with the "loss of a major military power," said Grand.

Europe could find itself diminished at a time when the United States, more concerned by Chinese threats in Asia, is asking the Europeans to do more for their own defence.

To avert any such dangerous development, some argue that the EU and Britain should retain defence ties as close as possible.

"We have integrated Canadians and Georgians into European operations," said an aide to French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian.

"We should perhaps find some kind of closer association status so that the United Kingdom continues to commit itself to EU operations,


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NATO-Russia talks after Warsaw summit: Stoltenberg
Brussels (AFP) July 4, 2016
NATO is set to hold formal talks with Russia shortly after a summit in Warsaw this week where the alliance will endorse a military buildup following the Ukraine conflict, chief Jens Stoltenberg said Monday. In April the NATO-Russia Council held its first meeting since June 2014 when relations were effectively frozen, and the talks ended in "profound disagreements" over Ukraine and other issu ... read more


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